Way back in the day, before the internet, many people found it entertaining to read. I was a young lad who enjoyed the "Choose Your Own Adventure" book series. These books pitted you (the reader) in the actual story by providing you with a plot or scenario and then gave you options to your next move or action. Choosing option 1 would require you to turn to page 180, option 2 would require you to turn to 200 and option 3 would say turn to page 300. The result of your decision could lead to your disintegration, a descent into mediocrity or conquering of the world. It was lots of fun for me. However, I would "cheat" by going backwards reading the resolution or reward and going to the subsequent pages that would lead me to that result.

I believe that Magic is very similar to these books/games. What intrigues me most about Magic is its exponential difficulty in determining each and every play. Now, what I'm getting into is damage control or perhaps learning from mistakes. Many players believe that all games are within a certain chance to victory. If one can look back upon a game, there would be one crucial moment where a player handed over the game or broke the barrier to victory. Remember, using a mulligan is actually a player decision and also can lead to winning or losing.

During a 2 on 2 team draft last weekend, it was observed that I played vs the U/B opponent almost flawlessly. Some of my decisions might have been questionable, but they were a high percentage "right play". I lost the match 2-1. My partner on the other hand made 5 very clear mistakes, causing him to miss life gain, lose card advantage, lose permanent advantage and even returning Punishing Fire. He won the match 2-1.

Besides being behooved at the results while I pondered all 6 games that were played, I was confused by my own logic (which tends to happen often). Clearly, card quality had something to do with the result, but I didn't want to just say "Better Lucky than Good" over the games since we won the draft. My deck was a control deck (R/G) with several combos and options to utilize during any given game. My partner's deck was Black/Red aggro. When I reflected upon his matches they were up front and clear, since the opponent was playing Black White, it was easier to identify the errors or (in fact) the good plays. In my match, I could've played a creature to block with or a combo piece, I chose a combo piece. My opponent had two cards, but I believed they were lands (confirmed later), so he decided to attack with everything he had. Therefore, hitting me for 9 instead of 5 (If I had played the blocker). With 14 cards left, I had stabilized the table except for a 3/2 flyer. I had 5 cards in the deck that could kill the creature and I was at 6 life. With the combo, I drew 3 cards on both of my remaining turns. At the end of my final turn he was at 5 with 1 attacker (3/2 flyer) and 1 chump blocker, I had 3 guys which would have killed him on next turn or the turn after at the very least (if all stays the same). I didn't draw an answer despite being better than 33%-50% during the red zone turns. Did I make a mistake taking 9 instead of 5?

Successful Magic players ALL know the probabilities when it comes to playing, not all players know when to play with or against the probabilities. I'm sure that's why we all love this game, the uncertainties provide us with the hope (or gamble) we all enjoy in one way or another. "The sum of all information leads to an inevitable win", this is a quote given to me by world famous poker player Daniel Negreanu when we were discussing how difficult it is to fold middle to high probability hands. "The Win" as he mentioned isn't always raking chips, it's sometimes saving chips for a latter hand. Many Magic players have had some success in today's game of poker and I attribute a great deal of that success to the skills learned in Magic.

The following play was made during my final game in my final match of day 2 during Grand Prix Houston. I was playing G/B Depths and my opponent was playing U/B Thopter/Depths.

In my hand, I have Dark Depths, Naturalize, Extirpate, Dark Confidant, Chrome Mox, Thoughtseize, Swamp. I'm in Main Phase 1 with two swamps already in play. On Turn 1 I had Thoughtseized a Dark Confidant already, along with the 'Bob' he was holding 3 non-depths lands, Chrome Mox, a Muddle the Mixture and a Compulsive Research.

I decide to Thoughtseize again, he reveals 4 non-depths lands, Muddle and Compulsive Research. At this point, I decide to take the Muddle instead of Research, because he can search for a solution with Muddle whereas he takes a chance with fate by drawing 3. I then lay a Swamp and play my Dark Confidant. Apparently, he had not cast the Compulsive Research in fear of me going off when he was tapped out.

On his turn, he casts Compulsive Research, discarding 2 lands. He plays a Dark Depths, a Chrome Mox (imprinting Vampire Hexmage) and lays a Vampire Hexmage :(

In retrospect, I should've laid the Chrome Mox to play my Confidant and hedged my play by laying a Dark Depths. That way, he couldn't "go off" on me. Which at the point we were at, he needed either the combo or some way to get rid of the Confidant. I didn't want to give up too many cards from my hand to play my spells. Also, the cards I did possess stopped other parts of his decks arsenal with such cards as Naturalize and Extirpate. So, I became a bit frugal in my play.

This was game 3 of the final round of day 2 of Grand Prix Houston. If I win, I make it into the money. Unfortunately, I did NOT win.

Take the time to consider all of the available elements! Ask yourself these questions:

• What are the threats on the table? Or, based on the lands in play what potential threats might my opponent have?
• What do I have in my hand? What can my opponent possibly have or what have I seen in my opponent's hand?
• What do I need to draw?
• How can I win?
• This question is probably harder to determine, "How can I lose?"

When you're playing with good players, you may ONLY have one chance to win and if you make ONE mistake, you'll probably lose. In my 2nd example above, I don't think I made a wrong play. However, there was a higher percentage play that should have been made.

In the game of pool, one can put all types of english (spin) on the cue ball to have balls dance all over the table. However, the pros tend to do as much as possible to only have the ball roll forwards or backwards (draw). This is to force the cue ball to roll in it's more controllable directions, thus making higher percentage positions into higher percentage shots.

Magic (like pool) is pretty easy to play, and just as hard to master. One cannot master this game if you cannot determine the higher percentage routes to victory. Next week, we'll talk more about the impact of Rise of Eldrazi on the Standard Metagame and whether or not you should start selling your Maelstrom Pulse :)

Thanks!!!