Poor Wizards of the Coast can't catch a break.

After two years of stale formats, multiple bannings, and an almost universal feeling of unhappiness when it comes to Standard, things were really looking up. Guilds of Ravnica has been a huge success, and the exodus of Kaladesh and Amonket coupled with the new cards have birthed a vibrant and exciting format.

Yet still, there was lingering fear that the Pro Tour would destroy the openness of the format and return us to a boring Standard world. It's been happening for the last two years, why would it start being good now? And then Top 8 is announced and there are an astounding six copies of Boros-based White aggro decks. Disaster right?

Not quite.

The reality is that split format events make for weird Top 8s, as the players who chose to play Boros Aggro also did very well in draft and therefore ended up in Top 8. The true metagame breakdown was actually quite diverse, all things considered. Fellow writer Jeff Hoogland did a great breakdown on the numbers, so I will leave that to him and get to what's important...

Talking about how right all my predictions were!

Well... mostly.

Last week I gave my now traditional five predictions for Pro Tour Guilds of Ravnica, and this week we get to look over the Pro Tour and see how I did!

Prediction One: No One Deck Will Be More Than 20% of the Field

Partial Credit!

By the letter of the law I was wrong here, as Golgari Midrange weighed in just a bit over 20% at 22.2%. However, realistically we are looking at a very healthy Standard format.

Five different decks made up the majority of the field, but there were plenty of other decks played as well. Around fourteen different decks, across the whole spectrum of archetypes, had at least eight pilots... that is crazy!

So while I wasn't precisely correct with my number, the heart of my prediction was that we were going to have a vibrant and open Standard format, and that much is true. As such, I'm taking my partial credit.

Prediction Two: There Will Be At Least 32 Basic Plains in The Top 8

Exceedingly Correct!

If I only get partial credit on the last prediction, I should get extra credit for this one!

As I said last week, I knew that White aggro decks were going to be the breakout deck of the Pro Tour, likely splashing Red for some Boros goodies. I figured the minimum amount of Plains in these decks would be around a dozen and that there'd likely be at least three copies in Top 8; hence my slightly conservative number of 32.

The actual number was 78.

That's insane!

While the Top 8 ended up stacked with White decks, as we saw from the metagame breakdown this was mostly just due to those players also having great Limited records. Regardless, there was no doubt that Adanto Vanguard and Heroic Reinforcements were the breakout story of the Pro Tour.

The format will adapt, but be aware that aggressive White decks are here to stay.

Prediction Three: There Will Be Zero Copies of Disinformation Campaign or Tempest Djinn in the 8-2 or Better Decks

Partial Credit!

Damn you Guillaume Gauthier for making a liar out of me!

23 players went 8-2 or better in Constructed at Pro Tour Guilds of Ravnica. Among them was about the expected spread of the format's top decks: Boros Aggro, Izzet Drakes, Golgari Midrange, Mono-Red Aggro and so on. As such, I looked to be right on track with this prediction. But then Guillaume Gauthier had to go and screw it all up!

Mono Blue Tempo | Guilds Standard | Pro Tour Guilds of Ravnica, 10-0 Constructed

• Creatures (20)
• 1 Exclusion Mage
• 3 Warkite Marauder
• 4 Merfolk Trickster
• 4 Mist-Cloaked Herald
• 4 Siren Stormtamer
• 4 Tempest Djinn

• Instants (13)
• 1 Spell Pierce
• 4 Dive Down
• 4 Opt
• 4 Wizard's Retort

• Sorceries (3)
• 1 Sleep
• 2 Chart a Course

• Enchantments (4)
• 4 Curious Obsession

• Lands (20)
• 20 Island

• Sideboard (15)
• 2 Essence Scatter
• 2 Exclusion Mage
• 1 Island
• 1 Jace, Cunning Castaway
• 1 Karn, Scion of Urza
• 1 Negate
• 1 Selective Snare
• 1 Sleep
• 1 Spell Pierce
• 2 Surge Mare
• 1 Syncopate
• 1 Warkite Marauder

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Zero copies of Disinformation Campaign and exactly one person playing Tempest Djinn, seemingly only to prove me wrong!

Not only that, but among the 49 players who went 7-3, there were still only two maindeck copies of Disinformation Campaign and four copies of Tempest Djinn.

With such a large sample size there are always going to be outliers, and quite frankly I'm taking partial credit on this one. Neither card was even remotely important at the Pro Tour, even more so because of how poorly they line up with aggressive White decks.

There may come a time for these cards to shine, but that time is not now.

Prediction Four: There Will Be One Wild Ramp Deck in Top 8

Incorrect!

I always try to make one 'out there' prediction each round of predictions and boy did I miss the mark with this one.

Two people were brave enough to sleeve up Ali Antrazi's Rainbow Lich deck, while only a single soul took to ramping with Naya Ramp. These are not exactly encouraging numbers, and unsurprisingly none of the three bold pilots did well.

I still think there's a place for big powerful effects in Standard, as cards like Star of Extinction just seem too sweet, but the proper shell has not been found yet. Either way, you know what they say...

And I'll keep shooting!

Prediction Five: There Will Be More Copies of Tocatli Honor Guard in Top 8 Than Merfolk Branchwalker

Correct!

Well that one wasn't very close was it?

Given the amount of White aggressive decks in Top 8, there were obviously a good number of Tocatli Honor Guards floating around in both various maindecks and sideboards. While exceptionally good against Golgari Midrange, the card is also very solid at turning off Goblin Chainwhirler against the Red decks and helping to protect your various 1 toughness creatures.

However, more surprising was there only needed to be one copy for me to get this prediction correct.

That's right, not a single copy of Merfolk Branchwalker!

Not only that, not a single copy of Forest or Swamp either! While Golgari Midrange was the baseline 'best deck' going into the event and ended up being the most played deck, the most played deck at any Pro Tour rarely ends up having the best results. We see it time and time again, as the most played deck is also the most prepared for; people want to beat it and make sure that they do.

This is not to say that Golgari Midrange is dead, or even a bad deck. There were numerous copies among the 8-2 and 7-3 decklists and the deck is very adaptable to different metagames as necessary. Furthermore, it won't have as much of a target on its head going forward.

Don't count Golgari Midrange out yet.

Three Outta Five Ain't Bad

With two correct predictions, two partial credits, and one incorrect prediction, we end up with a final score of three out of five overall.

Given how both partial credits really feel like the spirit of my prediction was correct, I feel pretty good about this round of predictions. While Boros Aggro was definitely overrepresented in Top 8 compared to its actual metagame share, it sure does look good when I went so far in on predicting its success.

The overall takeaway is that it looks like the format held up! Standard still looks fantastic, with multiple exciting decks across multiple archetypes. Furthermore, not only does it look like there's more exploring to do with what we already have, but we still have five more guilds to go!

Gruul, Simic, Azorius, Rakdos, and Orzhov still await us in Ravnica Allegiance, and if it follows the trend of Guilds of Ravnica, we are looking forward to an all time great Standard format.

But for now, what we have is pretty great!