Magic 2012 is legal as of this weekend, and to kick the metagame off, we have a deluge of tournament results coming in. As well as the Standard portion of the SCG Open in Cincinnati, both Japan and Hong Kong Nationals will have just concluded by the time you read this. As the metagame was already only half-formed after the very recent bannings, M12 was certain to shake things up once again, and at first glance, it hasn’t disappointed. Today, I’m going to take a quick look at the winners—the decks that matched or exceeded pre-tournament expectations—and also the losers, who haven’t quite lived up to the hype. All my own opinions, of course, and I’d be happy to hear other opinions in the comments.

Winner: Tempered Steel

White Weenie is back! The runaway strongest deck from Scars Block Constructed has been transferred over to Standard, and following a strong showing in recent MTGO events, it has made its presence felt in the first paper tournaments of the new format. Not only did it put two players in the Top 8 of Cincinnati, it was also the fourth-most-played deck at Japanese Nationals, with a touch over 7% of players choosing the robots. After the fourth round, four were undefeated, or 18% of the undefeated players—an impressive improvement. Here is David Shiels’s Top 4 Cincinnati list:

[cardlist]

[Creatures]

4 Memnite

4 Signal Pest

4 Spellskite

4 Steel Overseer

4 Vault Skirge

[/Creatures]

[Spells]

4 Dispatch

3 Preordain

4 Tempered Steel

3 Origin Spellbomb

4 Glint Hawk Idol

3 Mox Opal

[/Spells]

[Lands]

7 Plains

4 Glacial Fortress

4 Inkmoth Nexus

4 Seachrome Coast

[/Lands]

[Sideboard]

2 Kor Firewalker

2 Celestial Purge

3 Mana Leak

1 Revoke Existence

1 Timely Reinforcements

2 Oblivion Ring

2 Shrine of Loyal Legions

2 Contested War Zone

[/Sideboard]

[/cardlist]

For anyone who isn’t familiar with the deck, it is a pseudo-tribal, very aggressive strategy, but rather than a creature type, it uses lords who pump artifact creatures. Memnite, Vault Skirge, and Signal Pest provide the cheap bodies while Steel Overseer and Tempered Steel power them up. Glint Hawk Idol and Inkmoth Nexus are bodies that dodge sorcery-speed removal, while Dispatch capitalizes on the number of artifacts played to work as potentially the best creature-removal spell in this or any other format.

The main deck is practically Block-legal, with a couple of significant additions. The extra dual lands let David play Preordains to fix his draws as well as some exciting Mana Leaks in the sideboard. Most important, Steel Overseer adds an extremely powerful lord effect to pair up with Tempered Steel. This deck also makes likely the best use of Spellskite of any deck in the format, as not only can it run the usual “Twinterference” but also is pumped by the two lords and can actually do some decent attacking. His number-one job, however, is to protect those two lords—a Manic Vandal coming at your Steel Overseer or a Nature's Claim on your Tempered Steel can be the only thing standing between you and victory, and Spellskite will cheerfully take the bullet for you. The rest of the main deck should be familiar from Pro Tour: Nagoya and Block MTGO events, while the sideboard is slanted toward the expected Red Deck Wins–heavy metagame. Celestial Purge should be a serious consideration for any White deck in the new format, as it takes care of a lot of troublesome permanents like Koth, Splinter Twin, Pyromancer Ascension, and Chandra's Phoenix.

Winner: Caw-Blade

The groan heard ’round the world. Even with its two flagship cards banned, the Caw-Blade name lives on in this Blue/White aggro-control deck featuring Squadron Hawks and Sword of Feast and Famine. If anyone has a better name for it, I’m all ears, but it certainly still has Caws and Blades—even more Blades than before, with four main-deck Blade Splicers. Here’s Tim Pskowski’s Top 4 Cincinnati deck:

[cardlist]

[Creatures]

1 Sun Titan

4 Blade Splicer

4 Hero of Bladehold

4 Squadron Hawk

[/Creatures]

[Planeswalkers]

1 Elspeth Tirel

2 Gideon Jura

[/Planeswalkers]

[Spells]

2 Dismember

3 Spell Pierce

4 Mana Leak

4 Preordain

2 Oblivion Ring

2 Sword of Feast and Famine

[/Spells]

[Lands]

4 Island

4 Plains

3 Inkmoth Nexus

4 Celestial Colonnade

4 Glacial Fortress

4 Seachrome Coast

4 Tectonic Edge

[/Lands]

[Sideboard]

4 Kor Firewalker

1 Stave Off

2 Celestial Purge

3 Flashfreeze

3 Mental Misstep

2 Day of Judgment

[/Sideboard]

[/cardlist]

Those cards that were always moving in and out of the deck—the Splicers, Heroes, Crusaders, and Emeria Angels—have finally gotten their shot at the big leagues, with the team’s former star players banned for bringing the game into disrepute. The deck has proven to be just as customizable as ever, and four Top 16 players at SCG: Cincinnati showed just how diverse this archetype can be. Tim’s deck (above) and Ben Friedman’s similar list skew aggressive, while maestro Edgar Flores’s and Michael Belfatto’s are definitely control decks first and foremost. For comparison, here’s Michael’s list:

[cardlist]

[Creatures]

2 Sun Titan

4 Squadron Hawk

2 Spellskite

[/Creatures]

[Planeswalkers]

2 Gideon Jura

4 Jace Beleren

[/Planeswalkers]

[Spells]

1 Deprive

1 Stoic Rebuttal

2 Spell Pierce

3 Dismember

4 Mana Leak

3 Day of Judgment

3 Preordain

1 Oblivion Ring

2 Sword of Feast and Famine

[/Spells]

[Lands]

3 Plains

4 Island

1 Arid Mesa

1 Misty Rainforest

2 Inkmoth Nexus

3 Tectonic Edge

4 Celestial Colonnade

4 Glacial Fortress

4 Seachrome Coast

[/Lands]

[Sideboard]

2 Grand Abolisher

1 Celestial Purge

2 Negate

3 Condemn

4 Flashfreeze

3 Revoke Existence

[/Sideboard]

[/cardlist]

Essentially the same deck . . . or is it? It still has Hawks, Swords, and counterspells, but where Tim had a large supporting cast of creatures, Michael has only two Spellskites and two Sun Titans. He uses the spare slots for a four-pack of Jace Beleren and three Day of Judgments, a definite move toward winning the long game. Tim’s sideboard allows him to become a bit more controlling if he likes, while Michael simply tunes his control cards for a particular matchup. Sideboarding against “Caw-Blade” is going to be immensely difficult in this Standard format, I think, as the tone of the matchup can change so much with just a few card choices shuffled around.

Winner: Puresteel Paladin

Caleb Durward was alone in the Top 16 with this archetype, but it too has a strong Block pedigree behind it. Without further ado:

[cardlist]

[Creatures]

1 Glint Hawk

2 Kor Firewalker

3 Trinket Mage

4 Puresteel Paladin

2 Etched Champion

[/Creatures]

[Spells]

4 Dispatch

4 Preordain

1 Accorder's Shield

1 Basilisk Collar

1 Sword of Body and Mind

1 Sylvok Lifestaff

2 Sword of Feast and Famine

2 Sword of War and Peace

3 Flayer Husk

4 Mortarpod

2 Mox Opal

[/Spells]

[Lands]

1 Island

8 Plains

2 Celestial Colonnade

4 Glacial Fortress

4 Inkmoth Nexus

4 Seachrome Coast

[/Lands]

[Sideboard]

2 Kor Firewalker

1 Spellskite

2 Negate

3 Dismember

4 Flashfreeze

1 Sword of War and Peace

2 Sword of Feast and Famine

[/Sideboard]

[/cardlist]

The man himself had a deck tech here, which I heartily recommend checking out if you intend to play with (or expect to play against) it any time soon. The short version of the play guide is: Get Puresteel Paladin into play and then start casting equipments to draw cards. While your individual cards can be pretty unimpressive, like Flayer Husk or Accorder's Shield, turning them into cantrips that also activate your Metalcraft abilities makes them very worthwhile. The Paladin’s Metalcraft ability is very relevant as it lets you equip your Swords a turn sooner—turn-two Paladin into turn-three Sword of War and Peace, equip, swing is a hard start for many decks to beat. The main-deck Firewalkers are an unusual choice that says a lot about the expected metagame, and Caleb notes that the deck is better equipped to answer 1-toughness opposing creatures than 2-toughness ones, thanks to Mortarpod and Flayer Husk.

Winner: R/G Valakut

While only just a winner, given the huge expectations weighing on it before the weekend, R/G Valakut put up a couple of Top 16s in Cincinnati and was the dominant deck of the first Standard portion of Japanese Nationals, making up 22% of the total metagame and 32% of the 4–0’s. With no Japanese decks out yet, we will have to go once again to Cincinnati, for Garret Young’s and Ryan Baker’s very similar Top 16 lists. Here’s Garret’s, my personal preference between the two:

[cardlist]

[Creatures]

1 Avenger of Zendikar

1 Inferno Titan

4 Overgrown Battlement

4 Primeval Titan

3 Solemn Simulacrum

2 Urabrask the Hidden

[/Creatures]

[Spells]

2 Beast Within

3 Harrow

4 Explore

4 Green Sun's Zenith

4 Rampant Growth

[/Spells]

[Lands]

11 Mountain

6 Forest

1 Khalni Garden

2 Evolving Wilds

4 Terramorphic Expanse

4 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle

[/Lands]

[Sideboard]

1 Artisan of Kozilek

3 Obstinate Baloth

2 Act of Aggression

4 Combust

1 Creeping Corrosion

2 Pyroclasm

2 Slagstorm

[/Sideboard]

[/cardlist]

Finally, M12 is making its presence known! Solemn Simulacrum and Rampant Growth made both of the Cincinnati decks, and while Simulacrum was not as popular in Japan, I feel it is a strong choice for Valakut in the present metagame. This is the new face of Valakut, with Simulacrum, Rampant Growth, Urabrask the Hidden, and Green Sun's Zenith over Lotus Cobra, Khalni Heart Expedition, and Summoning Trap. The sheer amount of splash hate that these cards get from removal aimed at the Twin decks makes them unappealing, and the less explosive—but also less fragile—acceleration suite featured here lets you reliably get to Titan mana while in some cases helping to stall against aggro. Urabrask will become a fixture in this deck, I believe, being the perfect lead-in to a Titan and hosing Twin at the same time.

Winner: Mono-Green Eldrazi

Toshiyuki Kadooka brought the ultimate Timmy deck to battle at Japanese Nationals, and in the first four Standard rounds, he went a perfect 4–0 with the following list:

[cardlist]

[Creatures]

2 Terastodon

4 Overgrown Battlement

3 Wurmcoil Engine

2 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

3 Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre

[/Creatures]

[Spells]

4 Summoning Trap

2 Ancient Stirrings

3 Explore

4 Rampant Growth

4 Everflowing Chalice

4 Quicksilver Amulet

[/Spells]

[Lands]

14 Forest

3 Khalni Garden

4 Eldrazi Temple

4 Tectonic Edge

[/Lands]

[Sideboard]

2 Pelakka Wurm

3 Obstinate Baloth

2 Spellskite

2 Thrun, the Last Troll

3 Nature's Claim

3 Creeping Corrosion

[/Sideboard]

[/cardlist]

No Primeval Titans?! No Eye of Ugin? Color me very surprised, but it makes sense seeing as how he’s maxed out on Amulets and Traps. This is definitely a list I want to test!

Loser: Twin

Widely expected to be one of the top two decks alongside Valakut, Twin decks in their many variations—R/U Twin, R/U Pyro-Twin, Grixis Twin, R/U/G Twin, R/U/G TwinPod, etc., etc.—really didn’t make a big impact. They were outnumbered by the unheralded Tempered Steel decks in Japan, and while three Twin variants made Top 16 at Cincinnati, they were all wildly different—one splashing Black, one pairing with the Pyromancer engine, and the last adding some Birthing Pod spice—so it’s very hard to recommend a best list. The Twin combo is still very powerful, but it is an expected part of the metagame, and one people are sideboarding heavily against. A pretty solid performance overall, but a little disappointing for me.

Loser: U/B Control

Another deck carrying high expectations, U/B control has been pervasive in MTGO Standard events for pre-M12 Standard, and seemed to come out quite well from the new set. That hasn’t transferred to live event success, with no Top 16 slots from the Open and no 4–0’s in Japan. Shoota Yasooka is having success with a U/B Tezzeret list, which sort of counts, but compared to the recent dominance of this deck online, it’s a feeble showing indeed. Control players instead leaned toward the U/W archetype, whether Caw-ing or otherwise.

Loser: Red Deck Wins

I’m very sad to say that my pet deck was walking into a trap this weekend—lured by Grim Lavamancer and Chandra's Phoenix, plenty of folks sleeved up Mountains on both sides of the Pacific, but came away with very little to show for it. No Top 16s in Cincinnati, and despite being the second most popular deck in Japan, it had no 4–0’s. The volume of Kor Firewalkers, Condemns, Timely Reinforcements, Spellskites, and Obstinate Baloths made things awfully difficult for our heroes. It seems even at the highest power level it has ever seen in Standard, the mono-Red deck will have to remain a metagame predator, waiting for the format’s collective guard to drop.

So there we go: some surprising successes, some expectation-meeters, and some disappointments to kick off our new Standard metagame. Such is the diversity of the new format that I’ve had to leave some exciting decks out, like the potential Open-winning Vampires and Jund, the latter featuring my favorite new planeswalker Garruk (in a three-color deck no less!). Be sure to check out all the coverage from this weekend—and the next, when Australia’s best have the chance to shape the metagame further at our Nationals tournament in Canberra. I can’t make it this year, but best of luck to all the Perth guys, and I’ll be glued to the coverage. As always, please leave any feedback in the comments or on my @rtassicker rtassicker).