The very first and maybe most important decision is a game of Magic is the Mulligan. (Well after deciding to play or draw). This aspect of the game is both daunting and powerful and I truly believe that it is the difference between playing at the Pro level and the PTQ level of the game. You just can't consistently get the blue envelop unless you know when to mulligan. At least that what I tell myself so I can sleep at night.

Many of us (myself included) are just afraid of the mulligan. At its most basic level it is total card disadvantage but really, so is going first. Yet at least 90% of us will choose to go first if we win the die roll. I think getting over that fear is the first step to truly being able to utilize the power of the Mulligan.

Imagine if you were playing Texas Hold'em Poker. You're down on your "luck" and are forced to go all in to meet the big blind. You look at you opening 2 cards and see a 2 and a 7 in different suits. At that point your odds of winning are the worst possible. If a poker player could mulligan like we do many would rather have just one card than keep this hand. Yet there are situations where we look at the same abysmal odds of winning and yet keep the hand we were dealt.

For today's class I am going to run over some through some scenarios of opening hands and their mulligan potential. Before we can do that we need to cover some ground rules. First I will only be talking about Limited environment. Maybe in a future class I can expand on Constructed but the added complexity is more than one class can cover. Second we will be using a 40 card deck with 18 lands as our main example. While I understand that many players believe in more or less of a land count we will go with just the 18 to keep it simple.

Number of Lands

While the number of lands we have isn't the only factor in a mulligan decision it is the first thing we should consider. Let's look at the numbers for a second. Using the above assumptions we can determine the following percentages for our mulligan hands.

• Zero lands – 1.9%
• One land – 12.3%
• Two Land – 29.2%
• Three Land – 32.7%
• Four Land – 18.4%
• Five Land – 4.9%
• Six Land – 0.5%

I personally like to know that I will have a land drop for at least the first 3 turns in Limited but with a Mulliganed hand I find 2 sufficient. That means that if I take a mulligan I have an 85.8% chance of seeing adequate land count out of my new grip.

With those numbers in mind I ALWAYS mulligan a 0 or 1 Land hand in limited. I have an 80 plus chance of coming out better by visiting Paris so why not. It's the two land hand that presents the first issue. If I ship back a two lander that means that 2 lands isn't enough for the deck I'm playing. Taking that into account I only have a 56.6% of coming up with more lands under the Paris Mulligan. With the odds only being slightly in my favor I really have to look at the nonland cards. In this scenario I try to let Math decide. I'll add up the casting cost of the spells in the deck and quickly compute the average. This is relatively simple since you'll be dividing by 5. If the average CC comes out more than 3 I start strongly considering the mulligan. In fact with a CC of more than 3 I will ship unless I have a significantly strong early play to counterbalance the probable wait that I will have looking for the additional mana to play my higher casting cost spells.

3 and 4 land hands fall into the probable keeper hands unless some other factor presents itself. Using the same numbers to base our decision it would be foolish to ship back a 3 or 4 land hand. If the land count in these hands is insufficient chances are that any hand from this deck would be insufficient. Of course there are mana color issues but we'll address those later.

Number of Spells

As our land count goes our spell count goes down. While having not enough lands makes a spell unable to be used having not enough spells make a land totally useless. I try to keep my mana curve at a level that would me to play a majority of my deck with 5 or less lands in play. Cards with heavier mana requirement only make my deck if they absolutely are game changers. Therefore I don't want to see a hand with only two spells as I have already seen all the land I will really need but basically have no action to follow it. I've had other players say the a 5 lander is okay to keep since you have an increased chance of drawing gas since so much of your remaining deck is "gas." Even if your chances of drawing a non-land goes up to 60% means that our next 5 draws will be 3 spells and 2 lands. So by turn 5 we've seen 5 spells and 7 lands still highly unbalanced. I equate a land heavy hand to being in top deck mode from the first turn. Looking for a lucky draw is no way to consistently win this game.

Of course like the hands that have only 1 or no spells at all are auto mulligans. The lone exception is if that one card is biggest bomb in the format and you know it won't be answered by your opponent. Imagine having no action for three turns because you kept 6 land hand with an Abyssal Persecutor. You finally reach turn 4 and drop his ever coolness on the battlefield. Your opponent untaps and plays an Iona's Judgment. Glad you kept that hand now? Basically 6 or 7 lands is a total ship.

Color requirements

Assuming that our opener has passed with an appropriate number of lands and spells we now need to assess the colors of those lands and spells. Since we are talking about Limited today we know that most decks are multicolored. Because of this we need to assess weather or not to keep a hand based on color. Ideally we would have at one of each type of land in our 3 or 4 lands. Sometimes this just doesn't happen. That is when you have to make a choice. Basically you're hamstringed. Having only 1 type of mana in a 2 color deck is like trying to win a running race with only 1 of your legs. Well maybe that's a little harsh because there is still hope. Like I mentioned above you can look at the next 5 turns. You have strong odds of getting at least 2 lands in those turns and a majority of your remaining lands are the color you're missing. As long as you need only one of those missing lands and you have some play in your "strong" color I would keep. I actually did this exact thing at the Worldwake Prerelease. I had a hand with 3 Swamps in a blue/black deck. I kept the hand and won even though I had 3 cards with Blue mana costs in my opener. If the lands would have been Islands I would have shipped though. Still the same problem but the difference was the rest of the deck. I knew my curve was early black weenie and removal and late blue flyers. All Islands meant no play while all Swamps meant I had time to hope for the draw. It was still risky and I actually said about turn 6 that I should have mulled.

Double mana requirements in cards may tip the scales as well. The hands that have only 1 of my 2 colors only have about a 50% chance of being kept anyway. If one of the remaining cards requires double mana of the missing color I am more likely to reshuffle.

Seeing the win

This last category is probably the hardest to call especially in limited. When you look at your hand do you see a way to win? If the answer is yes then it's a keeper but if you're answered no or maybe then you really need to consider a fresh six. Basically I looked a limited cards in three categories: Threats, Answers, and Facilitators. Threats are cards that apply pressure to your opponent. Answers are ways to remove the pressure being applied to you by your opponents. And Facilitators are cards that supplement and improve your Threat and Answer capability. When you look at your opener you should see a good mix of these cards. Seeing all threats is good, seeing all Answers is a little weaker, and holding all Facilitators is very sad. Keep in mind there are cards that fall in multiple categories. You need to judge weather or not you have sufficient threat capability and/or adequate answers to justify keeping you seven.

Honestly this last stage wrecks me on a regular basis. I always feel that my deck will come through for me. So I am optimistic that I will come up with something. In the end I have only myself to blame. It's not because of the deck or the cards the loss falls squarely on me for not starting the race on time. In fact that is a really good analogy. Not mulliganing when the situation requires it is like giving your opponent a head start.

On your mark. Get set. Go.

There's the bell. Class dismissed.