Accurately predicting a price spike is one of the most fun, profitable and important aspects of Magic's financial side. When done correctly, you can turn a monster profit in a matter of days. These are the kinds of margins that stock traders only dream of - it's not difficult to double, triple or quadruple up on your money with only a few clicks of a mouse. So, why aren't more people doing it? They don't know what to look for.

I've previously discussed how to evaluate cards in the absolute, which is a great skill to have when pouring over a spoiler or when seeing cards for the first time at a pre-release. Accurately predicting a card's uptick in value because of a tournament finish is a very different skill. There are a few case studies that will help demonstrate the skill, but the basic principles are quite simple.

The method varies slightly depending on the tournament. When analyzing a 1-day tournament like a 5K, States or Regionals, you have far less time and information to work with as compared to a 2- or 3-day event like a Grand Prix or a Pro Tour. Information is crucial to making an accurate prediction. The best way to obtain your information is to have a friend at the event who can call or text message you, but barring that, Twitter is your best resource. I personally make a point to have one or two of my Quiet Speculation readers tweeting updates from events so that I can in turn publish that information on the site. The last resort for information is the official event coverage - while this is great for detailed info on the tournament itself, it is usually not timely enough and it is far too public. By the time everyone knows that a rogue deck made the Top 8, it may be too late to get a good price on the key cards.

Once you've got your sources secured, you need to know what information to gather. At a large tournament like a 5K, it is best to start finding out what decks are at the top tables after round 6 or so (a little over halfway through the tournament). That way, you can start sourcing your cards and be ready to buy when you get the green light. For a Pro Tour keep an eye on any unusual decks that have gone undefeated in the constructed portion after Day 1. Even if the deck is flawless, its pilot may not make Top 8 due to the nature of the Limited portion. Because of this, some decks may not get the exposure necessary to cause a price spike. At a Grand Prix, just see what unusual or surprising decks make Day 2.

Let's take a look at our first case study - Nissa Eldrazi Green. Going into the Nashville 5K, there were rumblings on MTGO about decks using Nissa and Eldrazi Monument but they were largely dismissed as kiddie decks. Throughout the day, Twitter was buzzing with news about a deck using only green cards and the Zendikar mythic rare. Todd and Kali Anderson were both posting great results with the deck throughout the day, so right around the halfway point of the tournament, the combination of the MTGO trend and the success of the deck up to that point in the day should have tipped off speculators to the potential. At that point, I found a number of sites that were selling Oran-Rief, the Vastwood, Eldrazi Monument and Master of the Wild Hunt at very reasonable prices. I made note of them and continued to follow the deck's progress. As soon as not one or two but THREE copies of the deck cracked the top 8, I pulled the trigger.

The most important thing to remember is that it's rarely the marquee cards of a deck that take the biggest leaps. Nissa Revane saw a 50% increase, as compared to Oran-Rief, which saw between 150% and 200% depending on where you look. Eldrazi Monument was primed for a big run, and its possible that it is still on the way up. It jumped about 300%, showing the power of underpriced mythic rares.

The basic principle is simple. First, find a new deck that's having success or an existing deck using a card not previously used. Then, when it looks like the deck has a real shot at Top 8, source the cards. Avoid paying big money for marquee cards - there's just not enough leverage. For rares, aim for cards priced under $2. For mythics, you can go as high as $4 - Eldrazi Monument could be had for around $3.50 2 weeks ago and is now in the double digits. Once you've sourced your vendors and know what cards on which to focus, pull the trigger as soon as you hear the deck's made Top 8. It pays to be early. Some stores, especially automated MTG Online stores, have automatic price adjustment implemented so that if a big run on a card starts, the price will climb with the volume. The goal here is to get as many copies as possible for as little money as possible - that means the cheapest shipping options, ordering all from the same store if possible, etc. How many you order depends on your bankroll, how you plan to move the cards, how soon you need to see a return on investment and if you plan to keep any for yourself or teammates. I'll discuss moving inventory next week, since that's possibly the most-requested topic these days, but 12-20 copies is a good number for an individual player just trying to keep himself playing for free. More than 20 becomes hard to move quickly if you're just trading around your local play group.

I advise keeping a spreadsheet on something like Google Documents, especially if you have a smart phone. Google Docs is easily accessible via iPhone, which is why I keep a spreadsheet detailing quantity, price, source, status, and any notes if necessary. Aside from being helpful to keep track of what you've got that hasn't arrived yet, it gives you a powerful tool when trading. If you know that a card only cost you $3 and it's book value is around $10, you can often use this knowledge to cut people deals. They don't particularly care what you paid for it, but they know that when you offer the card for $7 cash, they're saving money. You're still making a great profit and its often better to sell cards slightly below market value in order to make a quick sale. My experience shows me that 20% below the big-name vendors is a good price point that keeps you both profitable and liquid.

That's about all you need to know to catch lightning in a bottle! Timing and good sources are key to pulling the deal, and good bankroll management is a must. You want to keep abreast of upcoming events so you can take advantage of market fluctuations. When this article is published, Worlds will have just begun. If you consider yourself a speculator, you need to be GLUED to Twitter and event coverage until the event ends. Remember, it's taking place overseas so be sure to account for the time zone difference. See you next week!