Dearest beloved readers!

When we last left our handsome hero, he was mopping up the tears of Top 8 failure, having found himself (and his Weapon of Choice) up against a bad matchup in the Top 8 of a local Invitational Qualifier. Queue foreshadowing. Somewhat successful at least as a unit, his visiting apprentice walked away with first place and one of the two coveted qualifications. Did I mention "queue foreshadowing"?

"Run it back?"

They did.

For the follow up tournament, Roman Fusco asked to borrow a single Searing Blaze, having previously played only three himself. You see I have picked up a habit from my own Red Deck mentor Patrick Sullivan, and travel always with a box of nearly every conceivable Red Deck spells one might want to play in Modern. Of course there is a set of Searings; and another set of Searings. And Shatterings! Exactly one Stomping Ground (just in case) along with the Destructive Revelries that might someday worm its way back into our good graces. And believe it or not everything from Stony Silence of Collective Brutality as splash options.

Every conceivable Red Deck card a Modern mage might want to adopt; but no. Of course no Shard Volleys. Of course not! I was happy to replace the one that had found its way into the previous week's winning deck list with a beloved and trusted Staple.

As for Yours Truly? I made one change to my main. And a key one:

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Most recent build of the Red Deck I used to make Top 4 of Saturday's #scgiq along with @romanfusco #mtg #magicthegathering

A post shared by Michael (@fivewithflores) on Jan 7, 2020 at 8:08pm PST

Can you spot the difference?

This week I further complicated the possibility of a deck registration error by replacing my one full-art Bolas Mountain from Hour of Devastation for a full-art Snow-Covered Mountain from Modern Horizons. Sadly, and for the second week in a row, no one either noticed my lands or was tilted off by them.

The only tilt, in fact, was my own... Somewhere around Round Two and Top 4. But we'll get to that.

Snow-Covered Lava Squared | Modern | Michael Flores

• Creatures (13)
• 1 Bonecrusher Giant
• 4 Goblin Guide
• 4 Monastery Swiftspear
• 4 Soul-Scar Mage

• Instants (8)
• 4 Lava Dart
• 4 Lightning Bolt

• Sorceries (16)
• 4 Lava Spike
• 4 Light Up the Stage
• 4 Rift Bolt
• 4 Skewer the Critics

• Enchantments (4)
• 4 Seal of Fire

• Lands (19)
• 9 Mountain
• 2 Snow-Covered Mountain
• 4 Fiery Islet
• 4 Sunbaked Canyon

• Sideboard (15)
• 3 Bonecrusher Giant
• 3 Fry
• 4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
• 1 Searing Blood
• 4 Smash to Smithereens

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Round One: Clark with Jund

I started off the re-buy tournament against the only player who had beaten me in the Swiss last week! I was reasonably sure he'd be on Jund again; because, like... Who owns more than one Modern deck?

This was a pretty by-the-numbers duel between a Tarmogoyf deck and a Burn deck, with him drawing neither his Collective Brutality Game 1 nor his powerful Weather the Storm in Game 2. A pretty cool key play was killing him in response to an end-of-turn fetch with multiple Lava Darts I had sandbagged earlier in the game.

Aside: Understanding Lava Dart

If you want to master Modern Burn, you'll have to learn the newer play patterns around Lava Dart.

Lava Dart is a pretty special card. On one hand it is the least efficient direct damage spell in the deck, generating only one damage for one mana when even the enormously overcosted Bonecrusher Giant hits for two. It has two superpowers, though. One of them, like Fiery Islet and Sunbaked Canyon, allows you to convert land into damage later in the game... But only if you are mindful up front.

The other is to generate the most efficient damage ratio in the deck! While many of the cards in the Red Deck - everything from Rift Bolt to OG Lightning Bolt to the Lava Spike that holds it all together - deal three damage for one mana, Lava Dart sometimes deals a damage for zero spent mana. You can float, flash back, and then set up a Skewer the Critics. It is great as the first spell to catalyze an end game burn flurry that involves multiple Spectacles.

It is also a unique card in its possible applications of gamesmanship. You know how if an Azorius Control player taps out you will just throw everything at him with the expectation that you're going to win with the last spell? But his last spell was a Force of Negation? Lava Dart can similarly lull an opponent into a false sense of safety when you tap out. "Oh, I can go low and set up for my big turn here," they often think. But then, Bam! You remind them of all the Darts you had stocked away in the graveyard turns and turns ago.

It's not always right to throw out Lava Dart first, but if you are planning to sequence toward a kill, it is usually advantageous to get rid of any Lava Darts you have in hand (or at least as many as you will have Mountains in play) so that you aren't spending mana on the front side the next turn that can be converted 1:3 instead of 1:1; 0:1 is so much more explosive.

Playing with Lava Dart is like playing a long stretch of poker. You often have to wait for your spot. But when you identify it? Infinite returns!

1-0

Round Two: Clayton with Azorius Control

A couple of months ago I asked you all what the worst way to go out was. In the same tournament I conceded a duel for time with a game-winning Mass Manipulation on top of my deck... And then bought it to good old fashioned manascrew in the Top 8.

I had a pretty decent challenge to that bonehead move in this IQ.

I'm 1-1 against Azorius going into the home stretch.

He's been working me with Jace, the Mind Sculptor since about turn four. As much as I hate it, I've basically ignored Jace. In part because he has just Fatesealed me every turn, working toward the kill, Brainstorming only once the whole time.

So I've got him to nine with two copies of Seal of Fire on the battlefield and a Lava Dart in my graveyard. He hit me with a Celestial Colonnade the previous turn. I don't know it yet, but there is a Lightning Bolt on top of my deck. So it's very close.

I had to spend a Bolt on the Jace two turns previous, but I have a good plan forming.

On his turn, he goes to activate the Colonnade again and I'm pretty excited. Instead he just takes 12 counters off of Jace and does me in.

Worst way to lose, right?

Well not only did I have the Dart and two Seals to have prevented this... My card in hand was Fry! I was going to Fry the stupid Colonnade! I just didn't know how many counters were on the Jace. I had brained it down from 13 to 10 on my last cycle... And mentally completely missed his Fateseal to get back up to 12.

New worst way to lose?

Barf.

1-1

Round Three: Yong with Simic Titan

Game 1 was essentially a solitaire game. He had Oko, Thief of Crowns... But at a fair speed. I had an outlier draw that killed him through two Food activations. I was more scared of Once Upon a Time into Arboreal Grazer than actual Primeval Titan here.

Game 2 I lost very narrowly because I had drawn the one Bonecrusher Giant. In between games I had sided out mostly Rift Bolts for Eidolon of the Great Revel. But I realized that this matchup was very fast. I missed the timing of the kill by just the Bonecrusher's second mana, which gave him enough breathing room to start working Oko. If you think about it, spending 2 mana per turn to gain three life is not really powerful. The Burn deck in the abstract would think that's a laughable functionality; but the problem is that you sometimes just miss your kill window as a result and then they get you with something else. In this case it was Primeval Titan, Radiant Fountain, and Simic Growth Chamber.

Game 3 I just made sure all my cards cost one and was able to deal exactly his life total +2 through a Primeval Titan. I figured he only had one Radiant Fountain; planned for "the worst" (him hitting the Titan + Fountain) and paced my cards to be able to do exactly x+2.

Shouldn't I have just tried to do "the most" damage I could? I think that is not a bad way to operate... But it's also not the most accurate way. In Modern, you're often in a race. The race isn't necessarily to the finish of the game... But it will often be a very specifically finite number of turns. So you might be able to play to deal somewhere between 1-3 more damage if you had another turn... But if your window is closed by the time that turn rolls around, you're not going to see that damage.

All other things held equal, you usually want to play Goblin Guide ahead of Monastery Swiftspear... But it is completely unclear whether you should play Soul-Scar Mage first, or when. There are definitely times it's right to lead off with Soul-Scar Mage and there are definitely times that it's right to rot it in your hand as the last card that never attacks.

2-1

Round Four: Rob with Azorius Control

I was paired once again with end boss Rob Seder. He confessed to me that, seeing Roman and YT in the room, he had added the fourth Timely Reinforcements to his seventy-five.

Despite the fact that I had pulled out a win against him last week, it would not be an exaggeration to say Rob was the player I wanted to play least in the room.

The key play in Game 1 was simply Rob drawing Timely Reinforcements... And then flashing it back for six with Snapcaster Mage.

A twelve point life swing is horrid, right?

Yes!

But I won.

Why?

Because Snapcaster Mage actually exiles the card it flashes back. Whether Rob has more than one Timely Reinforcements in his main or not, he only drew the one, and the amazing short-term return he got on old Tiago Chan prevented him from really working me to death with Flooded Strand for Mystic Sanctuary!

If you're on the Azorius side, think this one through. It might pay to be a little patient on your first Timely re-buy; because you've got another four coming if you're careful.

3-1

My breakers were atrocious so I chose to play the last round of Swiss.

Round Five: Ian with Traverse Death's Shadow

This card was the new Chase Rare! Tarmogoyf and Oko, Thief of Crowns!

I wasn't sure what deck Ian was on so I just sent my Goblin Guide in on turn one. This revealed a Street Wraith, so I was kind of kicking myself. It's not that attacking is bad, but it does kind of shoehorn you into a game plan.

I much prefer the "sit there and make them do something first and then bury them" game plan to the "make their Death's Shadow big for them so you are much easier to kill so cross your fingers I guess" game plan. Yet the latter worked and we were on to Game 2.

The structure of this deck is puzzling to me.

You need to fetch for straight up lands to make Death's Shadow big... And apparently to have untapped mana to sacrifice Food tokens?

4-1

After five rounds of Swiss, I was first seed and Roman was second seed; we were the only 12-pointers, having both chosen to play the last round.

That sounds great, right?

It's actually awful because it meant we would not play until the Finals... And Roman had already won a qualification the previous week.

The Top 8 consisted of:

1. Heroes! Mono-Red
2. Roman with (now with 4 Searing Blaze!)
3. Four-color Chord Combo
4. Edgar Flores with traditional Tron
5. Amulet Titan
6. Bant SnowBlade
7. Simic Infect
8. Four-color Snow Control

I liked myself in every matchup (including Roman this week, given he would concede to me)... Except Amulet Titan.

Of course Roman got Infect into Chord into a consecutive Top 2.

Top 8

I got Snow Control.

Game 1 his defenses overcame my going first, and I lost to Oko.

Games Two was pretty uneventful. 1-drop into Eidolon on the play; ho hum.

Game 3 was the interesting one. He mulliganed but started working me with every techy card. I was sacrificing guys and he was gaining four. Then it was Kaya, Orzhov Usurper. He gave her two good plus-ones for life, and pressed the button on the Ultimate for five more life.

Ho hum, Red Deck. Queue the music.

Top 4

I was rooting for Edgar because I like my Tron matchup quite a bit... And Amulet is next to impossible.

To make a long story short I had a narrow line in Game 1, but he had a first turn Amulet and an Engineered Explosives that completely fouled my Plan A. Then it was Oko. And eventually Prime Time.

I would have won through Oko; and in fact, could have put him to minus-two several consecutive turns, but I happened to draw a Seal of Fire instead of any deal-three. Happens, right? Then I was just shy a lethal mana two or three straight turns until I got got by a Radiant Fountain-finding 6/6.

Game 2 I had a third turn kill if only I drew a third land. I stalled on two; which wouldn't have been so bad normally... Except he had double Amulet and did me for 20 on his third.

While I can't say I like the Amulet matchup, it's winnable. Both my game losses were super close. You need more than skill and deck selection to win competitive tournaments against competent opponents... And this week I didn't have quite as much luck as I did, say, at the PTQ I was fortunate enough to win last month. One point or one mana makes the world of difference for Red Decks... And I didn't have them when they counted this time.

That said, I would happily play this seventy-five again. My conviction is stronger than ever that the Red Deck is the best. I lost a couple of games to Oko, but was 3-1 against him in matches, defeated a 4x Timely Reinforcements End Boss, and managed to add yet another laughable way to lose to my repertoire!

The real question at this point is if I should just try to master the Pioneer Red Deck, or explore more, different, strategies for the upcoming PT.

Shrug emoji.

LOVE

MIKE