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Main » Articles » How to Approach Every Matchup in Standard

How to Approach Every Matchup in Standard

Michael Flores
Posted on February 18, 2020
 Reddit

So this is what I think is the best version of the best deck:

U/W Control | THB Standard | Michael Flores

All of the choices are very specific. I'll go over the ones that kind of stick out.

4 Absorb (instead of a mix of Absorbs and Sinister Sabotages)

Basically, three-mana permission spells are not very good. There are approximately three macro deck archetypes that matter. One of them is the mirror and one of them is Mono-Red. Three-mana permission spells are so bad against Mono-Red that I sideboard out at least two Absorbs... And they gain life.

Permission, in general, is weak in the mirror (with the exception of Mystical Dispute in the first four turns) because in the current Standard, you kind of have to assume that there will be Narsets and Teferis on both sides of the table at some point. Permission - again specifically Mystical Dispute early - can be good at keeping these Planeswalkers off the battlefield; but they just have more copies (and more copies of Elspeth Conquers Death) than you will reasonably have permission.

Net: If you are going to play 3 mana permission, you might as well play the kind that isn't that bad against Mono-Red because trying to get an edge in the mirror presupposes you can even cast your three-mana permission spell. Which you can't assume, at least under pressure.

1 Gadwick, the Wizened (instead of, I assume, more Dream Trawlers)

Basically you just want a card to break open the mirror in Game 1. Different folks are trying everything from Chemister's Insight to Commence the Endgame. There are problems with those cards. For instance, as instants, they're bad if you assume Teferi is going to be in play for much of the game. But Michaelj, you might reasonably ask; Don't we also assume Narset is in play?

We certainly might!

But Gadwick is important strategically. All the specific decisions you must make in the mirror assume a very long game. I just won a match in a PTQ where I was 1) on the draw, and 2) kept a four-Plains hand that 3) allowed my opponent to get ahead with both Narset and Teferi early.

You'd imagine I was cooked, right?

Not so!

He certainly got ahead of me early, but I just hit my land drops and set up a Blast Zone for three to get us back to zero. Then I dug back in with Dawn of Hope, my own Planeswalkers (often as test spells), and eventually a rapid fire litany of Elspeth Conquers Death.

At some point you either have your own Teferi in play so you can guarantee Elspeth Conquers Death eats Narset, or you just attack a low loyalty Narset with multiple tokens from either Castle Ardenvale or Dawn of Hope, and then you just resolve a Gadwick with x=9 or something. Less effective than a perfectly assembled Emergency Powers? No doubt! But this is a plausible main deck card that 1) not only has text in other matchups, but 2) actually dominates Dream Trawler when they're both in play.

Also: Can you imagine a better playmate for Teferi, Time Raveler?

4 Glass Casket (instead of 3 or fewer Glass Caskets)

Glass Casket takes the wind out of Mono-Red's most resilient 3-drops; and can contain Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath more-or-less permanently.

It's not exactly a great card (and is first card out in multiple pairings), but it's the best available for the job you need it to do.

Caveat: If you're going to play the enchantments-centric version with Thirst for Meaning and potentially Constellation synergies, I would suggest trying Trapped in the Tower (which has additional value against onetime It! Girl! Rotting Regisaur).

3 Castle Ardenvale (and zero Field of Ruin)

I asked my buddy Roman Fusco why he had Field of Ruin and he said to win Castle Ardenvale fights. So I said if you want to win Castle Ardenvale fights why don't you just play more copies of Castle Ardenvale?

I'd also note six basic Plains (over, say, only four in some lists).

We thought long and hard how to approach the sideboard. My thoughts are that if you can untap with Dream Trawler in the Mono-Red matchup, you're very likely to win.

I basically operate that Aether Gust is a two-mana anything-Counterspell (and also Terror-like Disenchant)... Which is why I can afford to side out cards like Absorb. Similarly Devout Decree helps you dig to either one Dream Trawler or the 6 mana to cast it. It's all about making sure they don't have much of an advantage (and you have plenty of life) by the time you hit turn six.

Aether Gust is literally the best available tool because it can handle problem permanents like Tibalt, Rakish Instigator or Experimental Frenzy and answer Unchained Berserker one-for-one. Devout Decree is like a redundant Glass Casket that also draws you lands (or spells, if that's what you're after).

2 Dawn of Hope

The single biggest regret that I had in not winning this PTQ yesterday is that at some point other people will adopt this card. You simply don't lose legitimate sideboard games where you have Dawn of Hope and they don't.

It isn't Blue. It sneaks under permission. It's an awkward permanent type to handle. If unchecked, it's more powerful than every breaker in either deck. It also makes it nearly impossible for them to blow you out, even if they have Dream Trawler advantage.

1 Blast Zone

Got this one from the inimitable Sam Black.

It's awesome.

I wanted to play a second one in the seventy-five. Any ideas?

Next weirdo land I would play would be Karn's Bastion, by the way; rather than Field of Ruin. But second Blast Zone first.

Okay card choices out of the way...

How are we on field testing?

I watched all the PTQs at MagicFest Phoenix and came to the conclusions I wrote about last week. It's not only that uw is the best deck, it's that Standard is extraordinarily low variance. What that means is that the games will go long, and the better prepared player will win basically every time.

You can make in-game errors (forgetting the extra loyalty from Elspeth Conquers Death, or missing a Scry on Devout Decree) and it won't matter. The sheer overwhelming, overlapping advantage built into your card choices is just going to win out.

Simply having the card Gadwick in your 75 will guide you to play lines where it will resolve. Understanding that permission barely even works will lead you to lines where you get the most value from Elspeth Conquers Death.

Respect Red and play the right tools. Ditto on Dawn.

And then I played in a PTQ. Final record: 3-1-2

I'm not really one to complain, but this one seemed like a real lost opportunity to me. I'll get to my one loss (Temur Reclamation) in a bit. But in actually concluded matchups the record would have been 5-1.

The unintentional draws were heartbreaking and some of the worst experiences I've had playing Magic in years, but I'll spare you the details for risk of getting bogged down in negativity.

Okay! How do we approach all these matchups again?

Mono-Red Aggro

Paradigms have changed here.

In the recent past, you might have had to think about Shock. Shock, not only as non-combat damage, but Shock as a fast enabler for Runaway Steam-Kin.

I find it interesting that Mono-Red players have largely abandoned Shock in favor of high variance threats like Robber of the Rich. But on the other hand, it's in some ways like playing against a smaller StOmPy deck from the uw side.

I play a lot on my own turn. Not only stuff like Glass Casket. I just don't pass with open mana all that often because even Teferi-bounce (even if it invites a dead Planeswalker) furthers our agenda.

Really what we're trying to do is to minimize the likelihood of getting popped by an Embercleave when our mana is tapped.

This also speaks to our sideboard strategy. Maximize the plays that minimize their ability to set up an Embercleave. Live long enough - with enough life - so that you can tap for Dream Trawler on six. Then make it count.

Remember: Even if Dovin's Veto has text, even if Absorb can gain life (it doesn't actually always gain life in this matchup), Aether Gust is almost always a more flexible, more tempo-positive play if your goal isn't to blow the opponent out with every play, but just to life to set up Dream Trawler.

Temur Reclamation

There are two macro styles of Temur Reclamation.

Prior to this past weekend, most versions played Storm's Wrath.

Against this deck, I'd make the following recommendations:

  1. Try not to use your permission on anything that isn't an Expansion // Explosion

  2. Teferi, Time Raveler counters Wilderness Reclamation by itself; if you have Teferi in play, you're probably going to win

  3. Narset cures a lot of ills not by drawing action, but by dominating Chemister's Insight and other bulk card drawing (like the normally tough-to-handle Hydroid Krasis in some versions)

  4. Due to (2) and (3) above, tick up Teferi and don't tick down Narset. It's really tough for them to remove these permanents outside of Storm's Wrath; which only does four.

Once you understand the sub-fights, Temur gets really simple. They might draw an extra card with Uro (if you don't already have Narset) but Glass Casket actually does a great job of containing that Titan long-term. The most problematic card is actually Brazen Borrower, which can attack Planeswalkers and force you to violate certain targeting rules. But generally? This is a matchup where patience and strategy will usually lead to deck advantage.

But unfortunately there is a new version of Temur Reclamation that came out of the Worlds Top 16. This version plays Nissa, Who Shakes the World (awesome card) instead of non-card (in this matchup) Storm's Wrath.

Wow that is a mess.

I lost a highly legitimate match in the PTQ to this version. They literally just have a powerful thing that they can do - which includes a plausible way to power up Expansion // Explosion main phase - that the incumbent deck can't.

I think that Azorius does not want to play against this version generally, and it gets worse in sideboarded games. It will be interesting to see which Temur continues to be viable in Standard because the Nissa version is simply so bad against Mono-Red.

Azorius Control

While Game 1 will usually go a long time, winning the die roll is actually disproportionately valuable. If you just try to cast one of your powerful three-mana Planeswalkers on turn three, it's probably going to resolve. About 80% of permission spells that get played in Game 1 cost 3 mana, so even if you have one, it's likely going to be too slow.

That said, Game 1 will usually take many turns to conclude. Regardless of the positional advantages held by either side, the game itself is likely to actually end as a result of Dream Trawler attack.

The middle turns are going to largely be about Elspeth Conquers Death. If you're in a position to jockey for advantage, you're going to need to use your Sagas to eat their Sagas, provided they expose one. Then Narset; because otherwise you can't gain an advantage from Teferi.

If you only use your Elspeth Conquers Death to fight their Planeswalkers you run the risk of losing to resurrected Dream Trawlers. In the abstract, Dream Trawler isn't hard to deal with. Both players have four Shatters after all.

You can't control going first or second. You can control how you prioritize your voluminous deck manipulation. PRIORITIZE LAND DROPS. The first player to miss a land drop is likely going to lose. The reason is that both players are going to be hovering around six or seven cards the whole game while hitting land drops. So the first one to not-hit might walk into tempo-positive interaction. This is why Castle Ardenvale is so important: Not only is Castle Ardenvale a land (to help you hit land drops) it can force the opponent to use actual spells [in a mirror where biting first will put you at a disadvantage].

Sideboarding:

There is some debate about what you should cut beyond the Glass Caskets. I can accept 1 The Birth of Meletis and 1 Shatter the Sky; but I'm receptive to the double The Birth of Meletis cuts only because we're bringing in an actual 27th land. Especially on the draw, it can be a liability to cast The Birth of Meletis on turn two.

And that's how I would approach every matchup (or at least the ones that matter most).

LOVE

MIKE

TAGS articles, standard, constructed, analysis, decklist, sideboarding, michael flores, thb standard

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