A Nice Day for a Hellride

I actually have a fair amount of data to worth with this week. In addition to Magic 2014 Core Set hitting the virtual Magic Online shelves, there was also a Standard Grand Prix in Warsaw and a StarCityGames Open in Salt Lake City. The big story from this past week was the strong performance of Brian Kibler’s R/G aggro deck, as it took down both of the aforementioned tournaments as well as doing pretty well online. Jund remains the most popular deck, and it continues to put up solid results. After a brief flash of doing well at the World Championship, blue decks have gone back to severely underperforming. There were a few copies of Sphinx's Revelation floating around in Top 8s here and there, but the actual win rate of blue decks in those Top 8s was abysmal.

I’ve compiled data on the Top 16 decks of Warsaw and Salt Lake City as well as four Premier Events on Magic Online dated August 4 through August 10. Here’s what the overall metagame looks like:

As you can see, Jund and R/G aggro make up a sizable portion of successful decks, together accounting for about 40% of the metagame. There are very few rogue decks, as almost every deck falls within one of the following categories:

• Thragtusk midrange
• Hellrider aggro
• Sphinx's Revelation control or aggro-control
• Xathrid Necromancer with sacrifice outlets
• Hexproof creatures with Auras

There’s a quite a bit of variation within those categories, but it’s rare to see a deck do well in Standard that doesn’t fit this mold. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as it can make choosing your deck and what decks to prepare for a bit more manageable.

As I’ve done in previous metagame articles, I also have win percentages for the popular decks in Top 8s. Here’s what it looks like for the events I surveyed:

Numbers are meaningless without interpretation, so here are my thoughts:

• The numbers for The Aristocrats deck are heavily skewed by a single event in which two of them finished first and third, the latter losing to the former in the semifinals. Both of those decks defeated Esper control decks in the quarterfinals, similarly skewing the results for that deck.
• R/G aggro did very well across all matchups, with the exception of against W/B Humans. It seems that it managed to shore up previously bad matchups against Hexproof and mono-red.
• Jund did poorly against R/G aggro, but it did decently well against everything else.
• B/G Mutilate received most of its losses to Hellrider decks, and with R/G’s popularity on the rise, it may not be a good choice for the near future.
• Do yourself a favor: Take all of your Sphinx's Revelations and seal them in an envelope marked “Do Not Open Until Theros.”

Now let’s look at some actual decklists. I might as well stop durdling around and go right to Wenzel Krautmann’s winning R/G aggro list from Grand Prix Warsaw:

"R/G Aggro"

• Creatures (29)
• 2 Elvish Mystic
• 3 Scavenging Ooze
• 4 Arbor Elf
• 4 Flinthoof Boar
• 4 Ghor-Clan Rampager
• 4 Hellrider
• 4 Strangleroot Geist
• 4 Thundermaw Hellkite

• Planeswalkers (4)
• 4 Domri Rade

• Spells (3)
• 3 Mizzium Mortars

• Lands (24)
• 6 Mountain
• 9 Forest
• 1 Mutavault
• 4 Rootbound Crag
• 4 Stomping Ground

• Sideboard (15)
• 2 Bonfire of the Damned
• 4 Burning Earth
• 2 Chandra, Pyromaster
• 2 Fog
• 2 Pillar of Flame
• 3 Volcanic Strength

Buy This Deck

The main deck differs from Kibler’s by only one card: Krautmann swapped out the Kessig Wolf Run for a Mutavault. I suspect the reason for this is the sudden resurgence of Flash decks. It’s pretty embarrassing to spend all your mana on a Kessig Wolf Run just to have your creature Azorius Charmed. I would suggest changing it back to a Kessig Wolf Run unless blue decks are especially popular in your area. I mentioned last week that it was worth trying out Chandra, Pyromaster in the sideboard. I can’t take credit for the idea, but it seems that Krautmann was also thinking along these lines.

The Fogs in the sideboard also help out considerably in the Hexproof matchup, which often comes down to a pure race. Casting Fog on your opponent’s lethal attack can buy you the crucial turn you need to win the game. I never thought I’d see the day when Fog would be playable in Constructed, but desperate times and all that. Krautmann also increased the number of Volcanic Strengths in the sideboard, a decision that makes sense given the large number of expected mirror matches. The only change I could possibly suggest would be to try Bonfire of the Damned in the main deck. It sucks against Jund, but it’s the bee’s knees against almost everything else. Don’t take my word as gospel, though. Always test it out before you make changes to a deck.

Speaking of which, let’s look at what a Jund deck looks like these days. Cantstoped recently won a Premier Event on Magic Online with the following list:

"Standard Jund"

• Creatures (18)
• 3 Scavenging Ooze
• 4 Huntmaster of the Fells
• 4 Lifebane Zombie
• 4 Thragtusk
• 3 Olivia Voldaren

• Planeswalkers (1)
• 1 Garruk, Primal Hunter

• Spells (16)
• 2 Putrefy
• 2 Tragic Slip
• 1 Mizzium Mortars
• 2 Dreadbore
• 2 Rakdos's Return
• 3 Bonfire of the Damned
• 4 Farseek

• Lands (25)
• 2 Swamp
• 2 Dragonskull Summit
• 2 Kessig Wolf Run
• 3 Rootbound Crag
• 4 Blood Crypt
• 4 Overgrown Tomb
• 4 Stomping Ground
• 4 Woodland Cemetery

• Sideboard (15)
• 1 Barter in Blood
• 1 Curse of Death's Hold
• 1 Duress
• 3 Golgari Charm
• 2 Liliana of the Veil
• 2 Pillar of Flame
• 2 Slaughter Games
• 1 Underworld Connections
• 2 Vampire Nighthawk

Buy This Deck

Scavenging Ooze isn’t the only card from Magic 2014 to make an appearance in Jund, as it’s fairly common to see a full boat of Lifebane Zombies as well. They’re fantastic in the mirror, as they will almost always trade for two of your opponent’s cards. If anyone had any delusions of playing Junk Rites, that person should face the fact that Jund is no longer a good matchup. Scavenging Ooze shuts off the Unburial Rites plan, and Lifebane Zombie is a major pain in the butt for the hardcast-my-fatties plan. They’re not too shabby in other matchups, as they trade for most of R/G’s creatures, maybe even nabbing a Ghor-Clan Rampager in the process if it’s lucky. I would draw your attention to the Golgari Charms in the sideboard. It’s not really a great card, but I wouldn’t dream of cutting it. Your Golgari Charms might as well look like this:

The Slaughter Games are probably no longer necessary, again because they’re mainly for Sphinx's Revelation. Michal Kolacinski was playing Ruric Thar, the Unbowed in his sideboard at Warsaw. Those seem pretty spicy and are definitely worth trying out in that slot.

You can try to spike a local tournament with something like Bant Hexproof, but your mileage may vary. As you can see above, the results aren’t exactly inspiring. The only other deck I can recommend is some form of The Aristocrats. Xathrid Necromancer plus Falkenrath Aristocrat and a lot of disposable Humans is a recipe for good times. Just watch out for those Bonfires.

Last, here are the Magic 2014 Power Rankings. These are the top Magic 2014 cards according to the number of copies played, not including cards that were already in Standard.

1. Scavenging Ooze (previous rank: 1)
2. Lifebane Zombie (previous rank: 2)
3. Burning Earth (previous rank: 3)
4. Doom Blade (previous rank: 7)
5. Mutavault (previous rank: 4)
6. Elvish Mystic (previous rank: –)
7. Xathrid Necromancer (previous rank: –)
8. Ratchet Bomb (previous rank: 5)

I hope this information will help you in your upcoming Standard tournaments. I’m hoping to have an actual tournament report for you guys soon, as there are some sweet Standard tournaments this month in Toronto.

Until next time,

Nassim Ketita

arcticninja on Magic Online

http://www.youtube.com/nketita