From a flavor perspective, Theros already looks like a slam dunk. It seems like they really did their research—or at least brought on someone who knows a thing or two about the source material. There is one card specifically that really floats my boat: Steam Augury.

Well, okay, to be fair, this card is a bit different than actual Fact or Fiction. It’s like Fact or Fiction and Gifts Ungiven had a love child—a hot and steamy love child. In some ways, Steam Augury is worse, and in others, it’s better. In game theory, there is a concept called minimax, in which two players play a sequential game. The strategy is to maximize the worst-case scenario. In this case, the person making the split wants to minimize the maximum gain from one particular pile. Assuming all five of the cards are of equal value (I’ll drop this assumption in a bit), your opponent can no better than to give you three cards. A three-and-two split is your opponent’s best possible strategy and will always result in you drawing three cards.

With Steam Augury, the minimax payoff is two cards instead of three. You use the same logic to do a three-and-two split, but in this case, your opponent is making the decision and will choose the pile of two. This is because your opponent has the last move and will always choose to minimize your payoff. In this respect, Steam Augury is worse than Fact or Fiction. Now let’s drop the all-cards-are-of-equal-value assumption, which is almost always the case in practice. Again, from the context of minimax payoffs, Steam Augury is still worse because your opponent has the last move. The best you can do is divide the total value of the cards as equally as possible between the two piles in order to maximize the value of the worst pile (called maximin).

Now, here’s where it becomes really interesting. Let’s suppose that, in addition to the cards being of unequal value, their values are known only to the person casting the spell. This model is more reflective of what how an actual game plays out. Under normal circumstances, your opponent doesn’t know what cards are in your hand (or deck) and so has to infer what the situational value is of the revealed cards. With Fact or Fiction, your opponent has only the information she’s learned up until the card-splitting subgame starts. She has to act first and receives no additional information. You simply react to her choice and maximize your payoff. With Steam Augury, you act first, and how you decide to split the cards is something your opponent can use to infer the true value of the cards. But you’re smart, and you know that she knows that, so you may try to deceive her by deliberately “mispricing” the piles. But she’s smart and knows that you may try to deceive her, and so on.

This is what makes Steam Augury a more interactive and fun (albeit less powerful) card than Fact or Fiction in my opinion. Of course, not every time you cast the card is going to be as complex and intricate as what I’ve described, but the potential is there.

I think the card is powerful enough that it will see play in Modern—and perhaps even Legacy if there exists a deck that wants more than four Fact or Fictions. I want to focus on Standard though. In order to truly break the card, let’s look for other cards that synergize well with it, such as cards that interact with the graveyard. It’s too bad Innistrad is rotating out since flashback cards are the obvious go-to cards for this purpose. You could go for some sort of reanimator deck—like this, for example:

"Steam Test"

• Creatures (7)
• 2 Ashen Rider
• 4 Angel of Serenity
• 1 Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts

• Spells (28)
• 2 Grim Return
• 4 Izzet Charm
• 4 Steam Augury
• 2 Dreadbore
• 2 Glimpse the Future
• 2 Supreme Verdict
• 4 Obzedat's Aid
• 4 Thoughtseize
• 4 Chromatic Lantern

• Lands (25)
• 1 Transguild Promenade
• 4 Blood Crypt
• 4 Hallowed Fountain
• 4 Steam Vents
• 4 Temple of Deceit
• 4 Temple of Silence
• 4 Temple of Triumph

Buy This Deck

This list is loose as heck, but this is more of a first draft than anything else. The fact that Obzedat's Aid can target any permanent makes me wish Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker were still around. Steam Augury can work wonders in a deck like this, as it can find you the cards you need while dumping creatures into your graveyard. If you can keep your opponent guessing as to what’s in your hand, you can really mess with him when making your splits. Izzet Charm works to help you discard any unneeded creatures in your hand, though Thoughtseize can do that as well in a pinch.

Of course, there’s nothing saying you can’t play Steam Augury in a traditional control deck. Let’s try to rein it in a bit with a more normal-looking deck.

"Steam Test 2"

• Creatures (2)
• 2 Aetherling

• Planeswalkers (3)
• 1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
• 2 Jace, Architect of Thought

• Spells (29)
• 2 Essence Scatter
• 2 Syncopate
• 4 Azorius Charm
• 4 Disspate
• 4 Lightning Strike
• 4 Sphinx's Revelation
• 4 Steam Augury
• 3 Supreme Verdict
• 2 Detention Sphere

• Lands (26)
• 2 Plains
• 8 Island
• 4 Hallowed Fountain
• 4 Sacred Foundry
• 4 Steam Vents
• 4 Temple of Triumph

Buy This Deck

This isn’t that different than R/W/U control decks we saw in the last Standard season. Steam Augury is just an efficient card that keeps this sort of deck running. Late game, when you have a lot of mana, if you put Sphinx's Revelation in a pile of one, your opponent is almost forced to let you draw four cards. You can really start tricking your opponent with seemingly uneven splits as well. Let’s say, for instance, that your opponent has a ton of creatures in play and you really need a Supreme Verdict to bail you out. You cast Steam Augury and put Supreme Verdict in a pile of one. Your opponent knows you need to draw the sweeper to win the game, so he lets you draw cards. Then, you reveal the Supreme Verdict you were sandbagging and say, “Had it!” It’s this kind of interplay I’m really looking forward to.

That’s all I have for this week. Feel free to comment if you have your own ideas as to how to best use Steam Augury. If you see me at Grand Prix Detroit this weekend, feel free to say “hi.”

Until next time,

Nassim Ketita

arcticninja on Magic Online

http://www.youtube.com/nketita