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Metagaming Standard: Rotation Looming

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What decks are doing well in the Standard metagame? What should I consider playing and expect to face?

The following graph displays the most-successful deck archetypes of the last month. The data is based on Top 16 appearances in major tournaments such as StarCityGames Opens and Grands Prix. This week’s data includes results from both SCG Open Baltimore and Grand Prix Kitakyushu.

Jund Midrange still sits at the top of the metagame by a decisive margin with GR Domri firmly in second and Bant Auras in third. With only a few tournaments remaining, this is a race for second place. Let’s check out the biggest changes in the metagame since last week.

There’s not much in the way of movement overall—the top three decks have shifted by a couple percentage points each.

What are the most-successful decks of the Standard metagame, and how are they built?

Let’s take a look at the top decks of the metagame today.

Jund Midrange

Jund Midrange secured five of the Top 16 spots at SCG Open Baltimore last weekend. The archetype shows no signs of decline as we head toward rotation, and it shows every indication of going out on top. It has fallen off quite a bit in Magic Online Daily Events, down to under 10% of 3–1 and 4–0 decks, but it shows no such vulnerability in paper tournaments.

The deck is also holding fairly firm in composition. There is definitely a trend away from Lifebane Zombie, and none of the SCG Open Baltimore decks included the card. The ninth-place deck played three copies of Desecration Demon and two copies of Vampire Nighthawk in the main, but otherwise, it was par for the course last weekend.

RG Domri and Naya Domri

Domri decks continue to find success in the Top 16. The main variation you’ll find is whether to splash white for the services of Boros Reckoner, Voice of Resurgence, Loxodon Smiter, and Selesnya Charm in the main deck and a variety of options in the sideboard. The RG version sticks with Hellrider and Strangleroot Geist.

Bant Auras

Bant Auras was shut out of SCG Baltimore but had two decks in the Top 16 at GP Kitakyushu, including the tournament victor Raymond Tan.

Tan played a pretty stock list, and not much has changed in the archetype since Magic 2014 was released. The third-place list at the GP, piloted by Tzu-Ching Kuo, was also Bant Auras. The main difference was three Voice of Resurgence in the main.

Mono-Red Aggro

This mono-red deck piloted by Joseph Herrera won SCG Open Baltimore. The deck features impressive 3-drops Boros Reckoner and Chandra's Phoenix, Hellrider providing reach at 4 mana, and Thundermaw Hellkite anchoring the creatures. A bunch of burn, Chandra, Pyromaster, and Burning Earth round out the spells.

GB Midrange (The Rock)

GB Midrange has been successful on Magic Online for several months and arrived on the Top 16 tournament scene back at SCG Open Nashville. Today, it holds a small slice of the Top 16 metagame and is the most-successful deck online. The deck really benefited from M14 all-stars Scavenging Ooze and Lifebane Zombie. Doom Blade also fit right into the deck’s removal suite. This deck finished eighth at Baltimore and is pretty representative of the archetype.

What cards see the most competitive play? What threats am I likely to face? What removal will my opponents use against my win conditions?

A small segment of the Standard-legal card pool sees competitive play at any given time. Knowledge of what cards are prominent today should help guide your deck-building and play strategies. The following graphs provide the following info based on the Top 16 decks from major tournaments over the last month.

  • The cards played in the highest percentage of decks
  • The average number of copies played in the main deck and sideboard
  • Of the decks playing the card, the percentage of time it appears in the main deck and sideboard

These graphs tell you not only what cards you will face, but when you might face them during your match. You should expect to see highly-played main-deck cards in Game 1, for example, and sideboard cards in subsequent games, depending on your matchup.

With rotation less than a month away, September is a curtain call for most of these creatures. The Jund Midrange trio of Thragtusk, Huntmaster of the Fells, and Olivia Voldaren have been on this list most of the year. It will be interesting to see if Scavenging Ooze retains some level of its current popularity once today’s graveyard threats rotate.

Pillar of Flame and Bonfire of the Damned have been staples throughout the year. The removal list is much more rotation-proof than the top creatures, and most of these spells will stick around. The only question is which will find new decks to call home.

There are only a few major tournaments remaining for the current metagame. Brewers are focused on Theros and what’s to come, so we aren’t likely to see any new decks or major innovations. I’ll be back, however, with a Standard Recap to review the best decks and cards of the last year. Check back for that in a couple weeks. Thanks for reading!

Nick Vigabool

@MrVigabool


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