Rotation is coming, and many of Standard's top cards are about to be exiled from the format. Others will survive rotation and will find new homes in the new metagame. A lot will depend on the cards in Theros and what decks become dominant. Past results are indicative of future performance, however, and deck brewers will include proven cards wherever possible. Last week, I discussed the top ten creatures of today's Standard and evaluated their chances of making it after rotation. In this article, I’ll do the same for the top ten noncreature spells.
I ranked noncreature spells by the percent of major tournament Top 16 decks they were included in since Standard last rotated back in October 2012. I adjusted this percentage for the number of tournaments in which the card was legal. Doom Blade's rank, for example, is based only on decks and tournaments since Magic 2014 Core Set was released. Here are the top ten.
Doom Blade
Things die to Doom Blade . . . A lot of things. It's what it does. Even in a metagame with good black creatures, like today’s, it will still find a home. It's hard to imagine things will be much different with Theros in the mix.
Prognosis: Extremely good. If creatures need killing, Doom Blade will be there.
Putrefy
Putrefy is big today because of the prominence of Jund Midrange. It's flexibility in handling creatures and artifacts make it very valuable in the deck. How well it adapts to the new Standard will depend on how prominent black and green are and how many artifacts need to be putrefied. There is not a major B/G deck in Block Constructed, so a lot will depend on the new metagame. If Jund (black, red, and green) and Junk (black, green, and white) decks rise to the top again, it is a safe bet Putrefy will be there.
Prognosis: Fair. It depends entirely on how high the Golgari flag flies.
Abrupt Decay
Abrupt Decay and Putrefy are similarly positioned. It is another versatile removal spell that will see play if black and green decks do and if there are cheaper threats that need removing.
Prognosis: Fair
Mizzium Mortars
Mizzium Mortars is a very flexible removal card. Dealing 4 damage is pretty hefty, and the potential for a one-sided Wrath effect is a big bonus. Mono-Red is the top deck in Block Constructed online, and Mortars is in 100% of those decks. It is also a four-of staple in the B/R/W decks and sees near-universal play in Grixis Control. There is little doubt red-based aggro—and red decks in general—will continue to be competitive after rotation.
Prognosis: Extremely good
Burning Earth
Burning Earth punishes decks that play a lot of nonbasic lands. Cavern of Souls is rotating, but shock lands are not. Theros also promises to bring a new cycle of dual lands. The new metagame is likely to support aggressive strategies, most of which will include red. Burning Earth provides a real incentive to play fewer nonbasic lands and more red to punish your opponent
Prognosis: Good. It may come and go, but Burning Earth will be a good metagame call to exploit dominant multicolored decks.
Ratchet Bomb
Ratchet Bomb is most useful against tokens—against which zero counters is enough to destroy them all—and little hexproof creatures. With Lingering Souls rotating, tokens are less of an issue, and Bant Auras is on its way out as well. Ratchet Bomb may still be handy in the sideboard against aggro decks with hordes of small 1- and 2-mana threats, particularly for green and white decks with limited access to sweepers. The fact that it is "color-safe" and can go into any deck is also a plus.
Prognosis: Fair. It is a catch-all answer that is easy to cast. There is a decent chance the metagame creates a home for it after rotation.
Dreadbore
Destroying any creature or planeswalker for 2 mana is valuable in any metagame. The only question is in regard to the color requirements. Dreadbore is heavily played in Block Constructed, averaging four copies in B/R/W decks and just over two copies in Grixis Control. It's likely the new Standard will have some Rakdos-based decks that can make use of the spell.
Prognosis: Very good
Unflinching Courage
Unflinching Courage is best known for upgrading small hexproof attackers into really scary hexproof attackers in Bant Auras. That deck is losing way too many pieces to survive rotation, so the question is, Will something new make use of this particular Aura? Unflinching Courage is a staple in the Selesnya Aggro sideboard, but we're entering the enchantments-matter block, so there may be some stiff competition.
Prognosis: Fair. A lot of questions to be answered, but granting +2/+2 trample and lifelink is pretty formidable.
Supreme Verdict
The Return to Ravnica Wrath has been a key card in Standard control decks all season. It is also a mainstay in a couple Block Constructed decks: Esper Control and W/U Control. Board sweepers are an important component of control and tempo strategies, and it appears likely control will be in the mix after rotation.
Prognosis: Extremely good. If there are white and blue control decks, this will easily make the cut.
Rakdos's Return
Rakdos's Return has been an important card in Jund Midrange decks this entire Standard season. It has also been included in all of the B/R/W and Grixis Control Block Constructed decks. In B/R decks, it teams up nicely with Sire of Insanity to form a one-two punch of hand disruption. Where there are black and red midrange and control decks, you will probably find Rakdos's Return.
Prognosis: Very good
In summary, six of the top ten spells of the current Standard environment have a good chance of finding homes after rotation. Most are removal and answers to threats that are likely to develop. Some require specific colors but also aid in building a compelling case to play those colors.