Entering the Maze

Posted on April 26, 2013

The time has come once again to dive into a new spoiler, finally complete! It has been a while since we have had a small set to spoil, and unlike the past two sets in the block, it seems Dragon’s Maze will require slightly more detective work to find the gems. It seems the general opinion among the competitive crowd is that this set is an overall letdown, but I hold some hope. Many of these cards, even those few people hold in high regard, seem overpriced for preorder, but I have been eyeing a few cards to pick up this weekend at the prerelease. Beyond the initial investment, I believe a number of cards that are currently overhyped will plummet as the set continues to be cracked and in turn will eventually become good targets for future growth. My usual formatting for these spoilers just doesn’t seem appropriate this time around, so instead of giving expected growth or decline, I am going to stray away from particular prices and just state what my personal intentions are based on a card’s playability, both now and in the coming year.

Renounce the Guilds – A number of people are hailing this as a solid sideboard option to create a catch-all against problematic permanents. After evaluating the actual applications of Renounce against the current metagame, I just don’t see how this can be a reliable answer to anything. First of all, there is typically a more reliable answer to everything that Renounce would deal with, and as we go forward and the more gold cards that begin to see play, the less I like this card. I am staying away from Renounce the Guilds; even if this card does begin to see the fringe sideboard play, I doubt the price will rise much if any.

Scion of Vitu-Ghazi – It’s a cute card that is unlikely to see any real competitive play—bulk now, and the clause that keeps you from abusing it will probably keep it that way.

Aetherling – I have always been a fan of these types of cards since the original days of Morphling, and Aetherling is no different. Any time you cram this many abilities on a card, you have to really evaluate just where such a finisher can fit. I don’t believe Aetherling currently has a place but, I do see a potential home in a board-control deck that can take advantage of the flicker ability to dodge wraths and set up a quick finish. I don’t expect this guy to be a good investment now, but I can see the price dropping after the initial shock value to a point at which I would be okay paying cash on him. Currently, I can see trading for them in case they do see some fringe play before rotation and in turn spike, but I believe it would be unwise to go to deep in the short term.

Trait Doctoring – This is bulk, plain a simple.

Blood Scrivener – I love this guy and believe he may be salvation Zombies desires in the 2-drop spot to forge a place among the current field again. He still has a reasonably aggressive body and a relevant ability for a deck that desires to dump its hand quickly. Beyond Scrivener’s current utility, I can also see him fitting into any future blitz decks. I am not excited about his current price, but this is another of those cards that I would always keep an eye on; if the price drops to nearly bulk rate at any point over the next year, I would be willing to go in.

Pontiff of Blight – Bulk

Possibility Storm – As much as I want to like this card, I just can’t see any money to be made. Even if a deck does see any play, it will probably be a flash in the pan, and given how easy these types of combos are to break up, I find it highly unlikely it will even see the fringe play it would need to spike at all. Sadly, this card screams bulk.

Pyrewild Shaman – Bulk. The ability to return the Shaman is just far too expensive to make me excited about any possible play.

Renegade Krasis – The amount of work this guy takes to create even one trigger far outweighs the upside and leads me to believe this card will remain in the bulk bin for years to come.

Skylasher – As great as this guy seems at first glance, I quickly realized he solves no current issues. If Skylasher would have been printed a year ago, he could have been a $10 card, but given the current environment and the variety of superior options in Eternal formats, I just can’t see him receiving much if any play.

Advent of the Wurm – As much as I love this card and believe it will see play, I don’t see a current home for him. If a Bant control deck begins to emerge after rotation, he may have a chance, but as it stands, there are a number of other 4-drops that are necessary to most of the aggro strategies. I believe Advent will see play just based on how powerful it can be, so if the card ever is dragged down to bulk status, I would feel comfortable gathering as many as I could.

Blood Baron of Vizkopa – The first mythic on the list leaves me scratching my head. On one hand, the effect is very powerful, but it feels almost win-more in most situations. On the other hand, the protection may prove to be invaluable given the right metagame. Really, the most important question is whether this guy is better than Obzedat. At first glance, I would say absolutely not, but after looking deeper into the card’s playability, I realize that what may be the most important factor is what separates the Blood Baron from Obzedat: his cost. As we begin to see more gold cards, we are then more likely to be looking for splashes and possible options to make certain matches better. The Blood Baron is much easier on the mana than Obzedat, and if we see any form of four- or five-color control emerge looking for this sort of effect, I can easily see the Baron getting the nod over the Ghost Council. I believe Blood Baron is currently overpriced, but given the right deck, this card could easily spike to $20 on any given weekend.

Boros Battleshaper – Bulk

Council of Absolute – As much as I love the concept of this card, I just can’t see the Council finding a real home unless some combo deck emerges. I expect the price to slowly creep downward as more and more people realize just how unnecessary the Council actually is.

Deadbridge Chant – Finally, here’s a card I can get behind. Perhaps I am just living a pipe dream here, but all I see when I look at Chant is a Phyrexian Arena with no downside—other than the cost—and a major upside if you are lucky. I can easily see this fitting into board control or Reanimator strategies, and I expect the price to vary depending on the current metagame, but I will happily pick them up any time they are down. Expect a number of decks to take advantage of this over its Standard life, and it will perhaps become a Commander staple and hold value for years after that.

Dragonshift – Bulk

Emmara Tandris – Bulk

Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch – This is an example of a card I see very little potential for now but for which I have high expectations after rotation. Given how cluttered the 4-drop spot is currently, I highly doubt the Blood Witch will dethrone Hellrider or Falkenrath Aristocrat, but that doesn’t mean that spot will be filled forever. I would pick these up over the next few months as the price drops and hold them for post-rotation; if a blitz deck emerges, this may prove to be the perfect finisher.

Gaze of Granite – I feel this card will find a niche spot within a board control deck looking to use cards such as Deadbridge Chant for card advantage while using cards such as Gaze and Putrefy to keep you alive. Due to how narrow the application is, I don’t expect a high price tag, but I can certainly see wanting to have these for those weekends when it does spike due to an abundance of play.

Lavinia of the Tenth – I see this card seeing a great deal of board play in the current format, but once Restoration Angel is gone, I expect the price to drop, as the ability may just be a glorified Fog with no way to abuse it after rotation. Either way, I would not go to deep on this card unless they drop off the radar and hit the bulk bins.

Legion's Initiative – I feel like this card is the same type of trap that we saw in Aurelia's Fury. This is not to say I don’t believe Legion's Initiative will not see play, but I believe it will end up being a board card in a select number of decks that will probably only be a two- or three-of. The current price has very little chance of sustaining, and I doubt this card will be at a number I want to touch any time soon.

Master of Cruelties – Bulk

Melek, Izzet Paragon – Bulk

Mirko Vosk, Mind Drinker – I am staying away from Commander cards for value from these new sets—since they will usually be bulk before they become adopted or hard enough to find to hold any value—but this guy screams “casual” in every way and may hold value for just that reason.

Notion Thief – I see this card in Legacy more than in Standard, but I believe he will see play in both. I don’t expect the current price tag to hold, but I would keep an eye out if the price drops. The mana cost may be slightly too prohibitive for Legacy, but that doesn’t mean that if the investment is low enough that it isn’t worth taking the chance.

Obzedat's Aid – I don’t see this having a major impact on Standard, and even if it does see play, it will be in only a singular deck, so the price will probably stay relatively low.

Plasm Capture – I have high hopes for this card, but even if it does see play, it is unlikely to be more than a two-of, and it will be hard-pressed to push past a few dollars.

Progenitor Mimic – A few days ago when I was podcasting, I was on the fence about this guy’s playability. Since then, I have realized he costs 6, meaning he is competing with some of the best finishers in the format, and it is unlikely that anyone will be looking to play a wildcard with a possible potential to win the game when that player can just take a sure bet elsewhere.

Ral Zarek – This guy has been discussed enough, but I believe he is playable given the correct environment and can thrive in a format full of control mirror matches. Not sure where his price will end up, but I would not be surprised if he holds $15 or more and spikes even higher at times.

Reap Intellect – Another card I talked about on the podcast, I almost want to buy these at $3 just because of the possible upside if it begins to see play, but the prohibitive cost is holding me back. If there is one card in this set I am on the fence about still, it is this one. I believe we have the potential for a $10 mythic here, but at the same time, I would not be all that surprised to see it end up in the bulk bin.

Render Silent – As with Plasm Capture, I just can’t see this obtaining a real price tag due to how few decks will be looking for this effect and how many copies those decks will want to run.

Ruric Thar, the Unbowed – This guy screams power, and I expect his price tag to reflect that as well. Unfortunately, he is a bit clunky when you are designing your deck, meaning he may be left out of a number of lists that run more than a handful of spells, and his legendary status means you will be unlikely to run more than a couple copies. I expect these negatives to balance his price out, but I expect him to still command $5 or more at times.

Savageborn Hydra – Probably unplayable in Standard, this will be a casual staple for years, and if you can manage to trade for these under $5, you will do well in the long run.

Sire of Insanity – Similar to Ruric Thar, the application of this card is made a bit awkward considering how few decks can truly take advantage of this effect to maximum potential and still support a 6-drop. The power level is high, though, and given the right deck doing well, this could easily spike for short durations over the next year—as common sense would state, buy low, sell high.

Tajic, Blade of the Legion – Bulk

Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts – I don’t believe Teysa has what it takes to compete against the big guns such as Obzedat, but I do see a heavy causal following in her future, keeping her out of the bulk bins.

Varolz, the Scar-Striped – The hype behind this card will keep the price up for a while, and I would ride that wave until people realize just how fragile the combos are and abandon the idea. I expect the price to slowly dwindle, giving you plenty of time to unload these if you open them this weekend.

Voice of Resurgence – Probably the big money rare of the set, I don’t see the price dropping any time soon if he sees any play at all, which is almost a guarantee. I would not pay cash for these, but trading them in under $20 seems safe in the short term because if they see any play at all, they could easily jump to $30 initially, before much product is opened.

Vorel of the Hull Clade – I believe Vorel may find a home in a Standard deck that can use his ability while requiring an early blocker to keep you alive. Overall a great casual card that may have Standard application, pick them up as the market floods, and hold them for a year or less—this may be the next Parallel Lives.

Zhur-Taa Ancient – Although the ability is powerful, we are unlikely to see any Standard play from this Beast considering he greatly boosts your opponent before you and may never actually help you at all as he finds himself on the receiving end of a removal spell. Casual appeal will keep the swine out of the dollar boxes, but I don’t expect any major spikes any time soon.

Beck // Call – I don’t feel I need to cover how good this card is, but as I am sure you have figured out, it is just too expensive right now. Unless you need these to play with, stray away from them in the short term.

Breaking // Entering – Here’s the one card in this set I advocate fully spending cash on. This card does everything you want it to do! It appeals to every crowd and may even make mill playable in Modern. Besides the ability to mill, Entering also allows us a cheap reanimation spell to cascade into for even more combo madness. I don’t expect huge gains immediately, but this is my dark horse for the set, and I see no reason I could possibly be off on this one.

Catch // Release – As expensive as this card is to fuse, I believe both sides independently may see some play in a variety of decks, and given how likely this card is to drop initially, I would not have a problem holding them until those decks do pop up.

Flesh // Blood – Bulk

Ready // Willing – A way for G/W to dodge a sweeper seems welcome, and with the added bonus of being able to fuse a mini wrath in the creature mirrors leads me to believe this will see some board play, keeping it out of the bulk and in the $2 to $3 range.

Finally, we come to a close; normally, I break these articles in half and evaluate the set over two weeks, but as I want you to have the information going into the prerelease weekend, I present it here in one part. For more information and to hear a few other financial minds’ opinions on this set, check out this week’s Brainstorm Brewery! As always, thank you for reading, and enjoy your prerelease!

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand