Pro Tour Value

Posted on February 22, 2013

This past weekend presented me with a unique opportunity and started me thinking about how I could in turn relay my gain into something useful for you, the reader. The opportunity I am speaking of was the dual-event weekend during which I was presented with the chance to gain real-time information while at the same time being on a major trade floor to take advantage of being ahead of the game. Since Wizards of the Coast has closed the floor to all but those qualified, it has prevented traders from taking advantage of the information given in coverage to quickly turn that into value trades.

This weekend was unique because, for the first time in a while, I was able to use this information at the StarCityGames event in Cincinnati to great effect. This week, I want to talk about some of the topics a few of the other traders and I discussed this past weekend to further increase your understanding of how major events shape the market and what makes for a good pickup and what to stray away from.

Before I continue, I want to make a point to talk about the different avenues I use to gain the information I then turn into profit. First and foremost for any event with coverage, watching for deck techs and keeping an eye on the stream can be a great way to inform yourself of what is seeing play on the top tables, but that is a very reactive approach that will probably leave you scrabbling to buy copies of cards along with the rest of the Internet. Instead of just watching coverage, I believe it is a great idea to keep an eye on social media such as Twitter and Facebook. Many pros will post not only their records but also what they are playing against or even what they are playing. If you notice someone has been doing well but has yet to see coverage, it may be a good idea to swoop in and get ahead of everyone else by buying or trading for those cards before the player does catch the public eye. If you see a trend of decks that pros are playing or playing against, it may also be wise to start looking at what that deck contains—if enough people are playing a particular archetype, it is likely to show up somewhere on coverage or place high in the standings. These are certainly not the only ways to gain information, but if you cannot be at an event, using what information you do have seems only logical.

Now that you have the proper avenues to find those hidden gems or breakout decks, how do you go about figuring out what is a smart buy and what is merely hyped?

This past weekend is a perfect example of how to separate the field, and it gives us a snapshot of how a card can spike at an event but have no real effect on the price online. Boros Reckoner is a solid example of a card that was afflicted by the weekend hype but that never materialized to anything outside of the Pro Tour. From my understanding, Reckoner was trading hands at $35 to $40 before the start, and many people at SCG were picking them up at the current retail of $25 $30 in anticipation of the jump. I was happy to trade mine off at the current retail since I have watched similar trends before, and I did not believe the price would flux at all. In this scenario, I was mostly correct—SCG and many other sites did raise the price to $30 Friday. When I finally found someone interested in Reckoners on Saturday, they were happy to take them at SCG retail, assuming they were on the rise, while I was happy to dump them since I did not believe there would be a jump at all. A few hours later, SCG was back down to $25, and they had copies still sitting in the case, so I feel I made the correct choice.

Now that the weekend is over and Boros Reckoner has proven itself to be a top contender, the price has risen back to $30, but I do not believe this price can hold for long, and since I will not be attending any events for a few weeks, I still believe I made the correct choice. With redemption approaching along with a sealed Grand Prix next weekend, I do not believe this hybrid Minotaur has anywhere to go but down. Granted, this guy has been my bane of the set since I grossly misevaluated his power level, so who knows? This guy could be at Bonfire prices before we know it. I cannot understand how this card can be double the price of Deathrite Shaman given that Return to Ravnica won’t be opened again for a few more months. Snapcaster Mage and Cavern of Souls both have Eternal play under their belts, and their prices pale in comparison to this Standard staple. I am sure once redemptions hit that his price will drop, but for now, I am staying away from Reckoner.

Another card I want to talk about that presents an interesting opportunity is Supreme Verdict. Given the amount of play this new-age Wrath was seeing, it did not make sense for the card to be below $5. I took a chance and bought in at $3 when I saw the coverage and heard that it was moving hands as high as $15 at the event. I do not believe the real-world price will reflect that of the Pro Tour, but I can easily see verdict hitting $7 to $8 in the next few weeks. Knowing when a card is underpriced and understanding the margins you are working with is an important part of deciding what is correct to go deep on.

The last example of price fluxes during major events I want to talk about are slightly less visible to the average player or trader. Sphinx's Revelation is a great card to represent this type of price change; this past weekend, the card saw a slight increase from $15 to $20. This was not only due to the Pro Tour play it saw, but also to the lack of play Frontline Medic saw. Before the Pro Tour, people were hesitant to rely on Revelation as their late game since Medic crushes that idea unless you can board-sweep first. Due to this fear the price, began to tank from what was in the mid-twenties to the mid-teens in a few short weeks. When the results from the Pro Tour came in and showed a lack of Frontline Medic, the card quickly increased back to its stable price around $20.

This type of price change is harder to identify and take advantage of because it happens mostly behind the scenes. Rarely do people think about picking up a card that is seeing little coverage, and for good reason—those cards typically do not increase in price without a reason. In this case, we have a card that was seeing very heavy play and only dipped from the anticipated metagame that has yet to materialize, meaning the Revelation is still in the free and clear. This is not only one of the harder pickups to identify, it is also risky because if the metagame does quickly shift after the major event, you may never have the opportunity to cash in. I do not suggest going deep on any card that would fit into this category, but I would pick them up in trade if presented with the chance.

That wraps up this week’s financial column here at GatheringMagic.com; check out next week as I take a look at the current metagame and try to identify some of the cards I believe are worth picking up over the next several weeks. I also want to give everyone a heads up to keep an eye out for a new addition to the GatheringMagic team. Starting in the next week or so, a podcast I co-host, Brainstorm Brewery, will be debuting here weekly. If you are interested in up-to-date financial information with a bit of ego and laughter thrown in, check us out. If you have never listened to the cast and are interested in the financial side of Magic, this is a must-listen. I will be keeping my article topics separate from what we talk about on the cast, so there will be little to no overlap for those of you who just cannot get enough financial content. As always, thank you for reading, and if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to send me a tweet or comment below.