Locations
As I scoured the internet these past few days—stranded at home when I should have been out doing business, it occurred to me how impulsive Magic players are when spoiler season comes around. Competitive players are usually so well known for methodical playtesting that involves countless hours of grinding before being willing to go out and pick up a single card for a new deck. When spoiler season rolls around, however, that theory goes right out the window; very little thought at all truly goes into their decision-making processes. This week, I want to talk about how to be a better buyer when a new set comes out. I will be using examples from the new set, but in general, these rules apply to almost every spoiler season.
Planeswalkers
If you look at the trends of these planeswalkers, you will see that they typically hold their preorder prices for a month—possibly two if they see some Constructed play—and then fall off the face of the earth for a while. This is the time when you should be looking to invest. A great example is Elspeth Tirel, who was relatively unplayed for a good number of months, and her price reflected that, dropping as low as $10 to $15 for a while. Once people realized that she was playable—even if she wasn’t as good as they had originally thought—her price began to rise again, topping out at $25.
Knowing how to evaluate a planeswalker can give you great insight into what their price trends will probably look like. Planeswalkers with narrow abilities such as Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas usually stabilize in the $15 to $20 range while in Standard and drop from there according to their playability in older formats and among the casual crowd. This doesn’t give you a lot of room to make much money, so I would typically stay away from these cards unless there is some new deck that can abuse them. Though we have not seen the new ’walkers from this set yet, I imagine they will have an insanely high presale price and probably be sold in droves at that price—but those wise enough will know to wait and get rid as soon as possible of any copies they open prerelease weekend.
Other Mythics
Now that we have covered the big guns, let’s move on to the more difficult category of regular mythics. We have seen cards like Huntmaster debut at what seemed like an already-high presale price only to shatter that ceiling soon after release. On the flip side, we have also seen cards like Skaab Ruinator plummet to a mere fraction of their initial price once people realize just how playable the card truly is in the current metagame. I can’t make a blanket statement for mythics in general as I can for planeswalkers, but as a general rule, we can assume that anything immediately playable will probably be overpriced.
A great example of this is Drogskol Reaver. I am not as big a fan of this card as many are, but after rotation, we will be losing a lot of the finishing power control currently possesses, and those decks will be looking for new options. Keeping cards like this in mind can allow you to stock up before rotation so that when the card does spike, you already have a good number in stock—whether it be for a personal play set or for trade.
You also have to be careful with cards like this because they can easily be replaced if a new candidate comes along before the rotation. In the case of Drogskol Reaver, I have not seen anything yet that looks to be a W/U finisher, but given we are entering a set with a ton of new Angels, it is very possible his spot will get bumped before he even has a chance to fill it. I would certainly look to pick up Reavers if you can get them at a relativity cheap price—there isn’t much more the card can drop—but I also wouldn’t go out of my way to obtain them.
Hype Mythics
I fall into the latter camp that realizes this card has its uses, but outside of cute tricks with Jace and Brainstorm, it is essentially overhyped. These types of cards have been printed before; the aforementioned Skaab Ruinator is one of them, and they usually plummet when they finally start seeing real testing and people realize just how conditional they are. I will venture to say that this card will settle around $6 and $7 considering its playability in Legacy and Commander, but it certainly doesn’t warrant anything near the current $40 sites are asking for.
The truth behind this card is that, like Visions of Beyond, we see an effect that we remember as older players to be very powerful in the right situation, and we latch on. Get past that! Look at this card for what it is, and realize there is no reason it should have nearly this high of a price tag—nor should it warrant Personal Tutor’s price doubling overnight.
Though miracle has caused uproar though it’s likely overhyped, that does not mean there cannot be money to be made. Plain and simple, people will try to play this card, and as a trader, you should take advantage of that and stock up on Personal Tutors if you can find them cheap from shops—then, dump them before the hype dies down.
There are mythics that fall into the other camp—such as Consecrated Sphinx—that start with a relatively low price tag until someone realizes how solid the card can be. These are the cards we should be looking at from new sets, and although I haven’t seen one in the new set yet, I venture to guess there will be at least one—if not a few—that will be overshadowed by the flashy planeswalkers and miracle cards. Spotting these cards early is one of two ways to make money from a new set, so keep an eye out as I will for the sleepers. As more cards are spoiled, I will give better examples of this particular category, but as has been the cycle almost every set—large or small—there will be at least one.
Sleeper Rares
Not every sleeper has to be in a small block. Cards such as Phantasmal Image, which people overlooked when focusing on the Titans and planeswalkers, can have long-term potential. Of all the ways to make money from a new set, identifying a major sleeper while everyone else is blind with mythic fever is by far the best. From this set, I believe Angel of Redemption is a very strong candidate that will probably only be held back monetarily due to the promo that everyone will have. This is not to say the card will not rise in price during its life in Standard, but I certainly wouldn’t put all my eggs in that basket. As the set comes out, I will talk more about what I feel are the sleepers in this set and why you should be picking them up now!
That’s all I have for this week. Join me next week as my road trip should be in full swing. I will bring you tales of the road and possibly an interview from a man whom very few know, but those who do know him respect him highly on the floor.
Until next week, let me know what you guys think are some sleepers as the set is revealed and what cards are just overhyped. I don’t want to roll any dice or look at plastic Magic 8-Balls to compare my call shots; I’d rather compare my opinions to yours and see who is more accurate. Consider this me against the community in a sense. I will have more details in the coming weeks, but expect some solid calls and far fewer shenanigans than we have seen recently during spoiler season.
Don’t catch mythic fever!
Ryan Bushard
