This week continues the Standard draught as we had a Legacy GP in Columbus this weekend. Fear not, though, for I am done with the old and moving back to looking at the new. I can think of no better way to do this than by assessing exactly where Standard looks to gain the most, both from this coming set and from rotation soon after.
Before I go too far, I did want to look at one list we have not seen much of lately. When this was first big, Jace, Vryn's Prodigy was a much more expensive card, and while it is still certainly not cheap, if you have picked them up since then or have any intentions of doing so this deck is a lot of fun to pilot and can pull wins from nowhere. Beyond that, you also get to draw ALL of the cards. I mean, who doesn’t like doing that?
U/R Goggles ? Shadows over Innistrad Standard | Jerry Joyce 4th Place PTQ Roanoke
- Creatures (8)
- 4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
- 4 Thing in the Ice
- Planeswalkers (2)
- 2 Chandra, Flamecaller
- Spells (24)
- 2 Fall of the Titans
- 2 Fiery Impulse
- 2 Lightning Axe
- 2 Negate
- 4 Fiery Temper
- 3 Magmatic Insight
- 4 Tormenting Voice
- 2 Sphinx's Tutelage
- 3 Pyromancer's Goggles
- Lands (26)
- 4 Island
- 7 Mountain
- 3 Highland Lake
- 4 Drownyard Temple
- 4 Shivan Reef
- 4 Wandering Fumarole
- Sideboard (15)
- 4 Fevered Visions
- 3 Eldrazi Obligator
- 2 Void Shatter
- 2 Psychic Rebuttal
- 3 Rending Volley
- 1 Negate
This deck is nothing new, but it was nice to see it pop up again as it really was the first break-out deck of the format months ago. I played this deck for the first few weeks and really enjoyed the feel of both utilizing Pyromancer's Goggles and drawing infinite cards. Coincidently, they tend to go hand in hand most of the time. Not much has changed with the list, but the format seems to have slowed down enough to make it a potential contender, even with all of the G/W running around. I’m not sure I like this exact version over the main deck Fevered Visions I played, but, regardless of what list you settle on, this deck is a blast to play and best highlights exactly what Thing in the Ice can do.
Financially, there is not much here. Even with Jace, Vryn's Prodigy dropping, we are likely not at the bottom of its price drop, and rotation is not that far off which gives us even less of a window for a second price surge from the coming PT. This is most likely the case even if Jace sees heavy play. One reason I am already looking at future Standard is how quickly the market is reacting to coming rotations. Looking at the data we now have trickling in, we can see prices are bottoming out much quicker than most anticipated. Granted, this mid-season rotation is also plagued by a lot hype that has little to do with Standard, but, even without Eternal Masters, Standard seems to be fairly solved which means the next big chance you have at money is Eldritch Moon followed closely by the Fall rotation.
While there are cards capable of benefiting from either of the upcoming two sets, I want to spend this week focusing on a few that should have a good chance of hitting and have already hit rock bottom. While cards from Battle and Oath just joined us less than a year ago it won't be long before we see those prices begin to decline just like Dragons and Origins are doing now. That means, if you get into cards now from Battle or Zendikar Block, it is best to move them no later than a month after Kaladesh releases. The trickiest part is figuring out exactly what will and won’t move sseing as prices have been so suppressed by the Expeditions. Both sets are left with little value currently due to the Expeditions. That does provide a cheap buy-in, but it also increases the chances that the cards stay worthless due to how many were opened.
Given how cheap Shadows over Innistrad has gotten, I believe Shadows may be a better speculative market. I want to focus on that next week as it ties in more with Eldritch Moon and, therefore, has more crossover picks with a chance to hit twice: this year and again next year if nothing pans out now. This week will be cards exclusively from Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch. I feel many of these cards may hold their current value, but that can be a boon when so many other prices will be sinking over the coming months.
Blight Herder
I know I’ve covered this card before, and it has seen some fringe play; but, at pure bulk price this card feels like it could be very relevant in a format creating tokens. From what I’ve gathered, that should at least be a minor theme in Kaladesh. This probably won’t be a major hit or anything, as there are already a few printings, but it can be acquired for next to nothing and it is likely this will see at least some play once cards like Collected Company quit ruling the land.
Drana, Liberator of Malakir
I don’t want to end up spending too much time on cards from Shadows this week, but I feel this card’s fate is greatly tied to Olivia, Mobilized for War. There are a few factors this card has going for it that Olivia does not, but, if a deck can support the Red, it is likely Olivia will get the nod in most cases. The main advantage of Drana is we have a tokens theme which means spreading the bonus around may be more beneficial than Haste, even if it is a tall order. This has likely hit the floor given its casual appeal, and that makes it a fairly safe long-term pick up, even if things don't pan out.
Dust Stalker
This card may also be overshadowed by Olivia, but with Thopters likely to be in Kaladesh we will be seeing more colorless creatures. That may make Dust Stalker a contender at the 4-drop spot in place of something like Goldnight Castigator. The downside of this card can sometimes be a boon, and, if the format is aggro heavy, it is certainly better than the double damage Castigator brings along.
Eldrazi Mimic
More artifacts means more colorless creatures, and this card doesn’t take much more beyond Thought-Knot Seer and Reality Smasher to really drive the damage home quickly. One of many bulk rares seeing play, I like this due to the lack of color restrictions and the support the format already has available for it.
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
Gideon is certainly not cheap, but the card has time and again proven itself in Standard and has now even broken into Legacy as of this past weekend. It is unlikely Gideon will hold his value through rotation next Spring but I feel his price is at least safe though the fall rotation, and having a few cards you can target which may hold some value can be a good thing if you don't have time to focus on trading.
Kozilek's Return
Next to Radiant Flames, this is the most efficient sweeper for its cost and Eldrazi have already proven they are here to stay. While I never expect this card to hit the ridiculous pre-sale price, I can see it doubling up after rotation to deal with Thopters or whatever else we may see.
Matter Reshaper
This card feels like it can slot into so many decks, and, while it has already seen a reasonable amount of play, it is also fairly inexpensive for how powerful the card can be. If midrange decks can afford the colorless mana, this gives decks yet another two for one.
Painful Truths
Already seeing play in Modern, Painful Truths seems like the go to removal spell if we move back to a greater number of three color decks. With two sets to pave the way for mana, that may be exactly what happens. At Bulk, this is a fine hold as Modern play will likely not go down, and over time this may hit levels similar to Supreme Verdict. I will typically just hold these kinds of cards all season long, as you really can’t go wrong on the price, and, eventually, the card will hit.
Radiant Flames
With aggressive decks getting a boost, sweepers at four and five mana may be too slow and Radiant Flames is the best answer to that problem. Another bulk bin special, this card also has a full art promo that is fairly inexpensive and may be a fine target. When I have the option of the cheapest copy, that is typically what I will pick up, and, with the window being limited on this card, you really want to make sure the copies you do have move when they need to.
Smothering Abomination
This is likely the hail mary of all the picks as it is not easy to identify a list I would want to play this in right now. However, tokens are expendable and Vampires already has a miniature sacrifice theme going on. This may be the engine that deck needs to fuel Olivia, and a 5/4 flying haste creature plays well against the removal in the format as well.
Stone Haven Outfitter
This one depends on the hunch we'll be seeing Artifacts supported in some way, as Kaladesh is full of inventors and contraptions. If we get any strong Equipment in the Fall, this could be the fuel for the late game the deck needs to keep turning small creatures sideways with reckless abandon to finish the job.
Wasteland Strangler
This card has already shown up in Eternal formats and still remains a bulk rare due to how infrequently a deck containing a play-set Top 8s. It seems like this card is always on the bubble. WIth a shake up in the fall, I see this card potentially playing a large role in shutting down the aggro decks that will presumably appear in the first few weeks. If you pick your copies up now, you also gain the benefit of Eldritch Moon randomly impacting play. With each tribe getting a boost, it is likely at least one will break out as a premier deck and this may be a great answer.
Check back in next week when I expand this list to cover Shadows over Innistrad and further delve into Eldritch Moon. The lore has started to release, and the more we focus on what to expect the better idea we will have as to what cards in the format may assist in those strategies. We already know Emrakul is likely making a return, but who knows what other mysteries this dark land may hold.
Ryan Bushard