Vendor Alley 2014

Posted on August 22, 2014

After an exhausting weekend filled with far too many trips to Steak ’n Shake and miles of walking, here we are again. As I talked about last week, I attended Gen Con this past weekend, and I had the rare opportunity to see one of the larger Magic presences each year. This year seemed to bring the largest group of vendors I have seen yet—and they weren’t all of the major names you might expect. I used this time in the exhibitor hall to look at cases, watching for price trends and discrepancies as well as utilizing my friendships with many of the buyers to gather information. I don’t directly do interviews anymore, as that ends up being far too formal and rarely ends in raw card advice, but rather general theory; instead, I just carry on conversation and glean what information I can. Now that I have a had a few days to review notes and relax back at home, it is time to put some of that intel to use.

One of the cards I saw a huge discrepancy on was Mana Confluence. Almost all of the vendors were low on stock, and though some buy lists averaged about $5, others were as high as $9. On the open online market, these can be found for between $9 and $10, meaning it is probably time to buy in. I have not had a chance to, but nothing seems surer going into a tri-colored block than one of the best mana-fixing lands ever—and certainly in Standard. With the current cycle of lands already possibly dealing you damage and the others coming into play tapped, control decks will be looking for the most efficient ways to fix mana while being able to maximize the number of lands you can have that enter the battlefield untapped. Much like Reflecting Pool back in its respective Standard, this should be a staple of almost any three- to five-colored control variant—probably as a four of. The added bonus that Mana Confluence brings over Reflecting Pool in that era is that aggro decks will also be seeking it to hit their early drops among their three colors. Maybe I am missing something here, but Mana Confluence, from what I can see, will be in demand from a large portion of the metagame, and at $10, I like buying in. I could see this easily matching Cavern of Souls given the similarity, though I may argue that Mana Confluence has more applications in Standard. Both were printed in small sets, and this time around, it was one that was opened for an even shorter time given Conspiracy and the popularity of M15. I do not want to go to crazy here, but I do not see any way this card stays below $20; I feel it could see double that at some point.

I have been asked by people how I expect Mana Confluence to hold up a control deck while such a deck needs every point of life it can get. Back when Shards of Alara and Lorwyn blocks were legal together, you had Kitchen Finks to solve this problem; the Kitchen menace was higher than most of the rares in that set at the time and was only uncommon. Even now, it holds value after two reprints. I am sure you can see where I am drawing my similarity here, but Courser of Kruphix is back in a prime spot to be snagged. Once the initial spike of this guy happened, it seemed that its life in Standard would ride out around $20, and then it was reprinted in the Clash Pack. Everyone is very eager to drop theirs now, though it seems that cannot be correct. Do we remember what the reprint did to Thragtusk or how little of an impact these cards see over time? Courser is going to continue to rule the 3-drop spot as one of the most efficient card- and life-advantage cards around, so why is the price dropping? People are looking at these Clash Packs as though they will be on shelves through the life of Courser. Spoiler: They won’t. Playability will drive this card’s price back to where it was, if not higher, and if you are getting out now, you are making a mistake; if these drop any more, it is time to start buying.

I have heard people talking a great deal about Xenagos, the Reveler over the past few weeks, and I was asked my opinion. I am sure he has great potential to be a huge player in the upcoming format, but given how many other cards have yet to spike at all, he is kind of in the back of my mind. I don’t know that I would buy in now, but I do not feel you need to sell them off either. His price seems fair, and though it has the possibility to go up, I would not see it being enough to justify shelling out the cash unless you want them to play with.

If you have any of the Commander decks, it seems the nail has finally been put in the coffin for there being any chance of value this year. Vendors were moving these as low as $20, and that just shows that supply has finally fully caught up. If you have any, just put them in a box and forget about them—or bust them for singles if you do not want to wait. It was unclear going in just how many would be printed, but with the Legacy hype of True-Name Nemesis, it seems the supply may have been increased even beyond their expectations, leaving the rest of them financially battered.

As always, Gen Con tends to be a place where you are able to see a larger-than-average number of high-end cards moving over the weekend, both vendor to vendor and from the public. Power seems to have stabilized for now, as I didn’t notice any major jumps on buy lists. This of all weekends is usually a popular one for higher-end cards to jump, as there tends to be a large enough quantity of them in the room given how many vendors attend to influence the market immediately.

Modern margins seem to be coming back to a more acceptable range as the wild west of buyouts and price hikes has seemed to have ceased. This is all-around good for the market, as it will allow the vendors to put more faith in the format as a whole, this being further boosted by the recent announcement about the inclusion of a Modern Pro Tour. This faith then turns into a more reasonable buy price as numbers stabilize. There is still money to be made in Modern, just as there is in Legacy, but now that things have calmed down, it is easier to evaluate what should actually be increasing due to demand rather than speculation.

I already spoke about the two Standard pick-ups I am targeting, but it seems, as a whole, the rotation will come quite easily this year. I believe not only the public, but also the vendors, have found its rhythm, and prices began to decline much earlier this year than last. This allowed for people to gain advanced warning and move anything they may have wanted to while not completely tanking the prices due to an oversupply. I do not expect most stuff to dip very much after rotation, and on a number of key cards, such as Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman, I would not be surprised to see the prices increase shortly thereafter. It seems we have finally figured out again how to approach rotation as a community, and that is a relief, as last year was hectic with the unexplored demand that Modern put on the situation. I would not expect a Liliana of the Veil this year, so pick up what you need as soon as you can, but I do not believe the window for these price bottoms is as small as it has been, so don’t feel that you have to grab everything at once either.

That about wraps me up for the week. I think I am going to continue sleeping off the weekend and start looking forward to the next Standard. With Khans of Tarkir just around the corner, picking up cards like mana Mana Confluence and Courser of Kruphix now seems ideal, but I am sure they cannot be the only ones. Next week, I will be taking a look at some of the less-acclaimed cards in Theros block and evaluate what type of impacts they may have given what we already know about the set. If anyone was able to see me at Gen Con, I appreciate all of the conversations and questions. It is great to be told that you helped someone build a collection and to know this is truly being put to use, so keep it up, and bring on the feedback!

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand