Standard Takes a Step Back

Posted on November 21, 2014

Grand Prix New Jersey went off without a hitch, and after two twelve-hour car rides and a few days to recover, I finally feel human again. I managed to get offsite for most of the weekend and instead took the hour-long train ride to New York City, where very little actual Magic was to be had. While I was in Jersey for Friday and part of Saturday, I did my usual scope out of the room and managed to glean some information on what was moving and what just felt inflated.

This week, since there was not much Standard action happening—with both a Modern and a Legacy Grand Prix—it seems incorrect to attempt to base where the still-forming format is headed just through some Magic Online and smaller tournament results. However, I do not want to neglect Standard fully. I am going to give a rundown of some of the cards that have been flying under the radar in terms of Eternal pricing and then look back at the changes I have made to W/U Heroic; yes, I finally settled on a deck for two weeks in a row.

One of the first cards that jumped out at me while I was looking over coverage from Madrid was Snapcaster Mage. This may seem crazy considering he is already a $25-or-higher card everywhere, but over the past few months, and with the boost of Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time for blue, this guy has been seeing more and more play in Eternal formats. Most people have been looking at him remembering the spike he took and dismissing another so shortly; while I would have agreed months ago, it has not been six-plus months of price stagnation, and with no sign of a reprint, I have to believe some upward movement may be in order. The margin between what you can sell these to a store for and what you can buy them for has remained fairly slim, while supply has slowly dwindled. I would not be in the least bit surprised to wake up one day in the near future to see a $50-or-higher price tag on this guy.

Desolate Lighthouse is a card I have heard very few people mention, but it continues to show up as a singleton in many Delver-style lists. The advantage it can provide in the mirror match—in addition to its ability to power out late-game delve—can be crucial for those stalemate situations. Currently sitting at bulk, this card seems very safe and is certainly going to trend up over time. These are the types of cards I begin hoarding whenever I acquire them just to collect dust on a shelf for a while until I find them a few months—or years—later. Don’t expect anything quick, but there is also very little money investment here, meaning you can get in for next to nothing and forget you even bought them for a while.

Tarmogoyf has clearly always been among the strongest cards in Magic. It has forced splashes for years and slain more than its fair share of Eternal mages. Normally, I would expect such a card to continue its slow trend upward over the years, and though I am certain it will not plummet any time soon, I also see some of the demand alleviating as the format turns more toward delve. ’Goyf will always be a great card—it will be the standard against which we compare any new 2-drop hitting the scene—but it may finally have enough competition to hit the back burner in some lists. The potential for yet another reprint does scare me from getting into to many of these, as the demand for me locally has also dried up some. I am not saying you should fire-sale your ’Goyfs now, but if you do not see needing them anytime soon, I may move them into other Eternal staples. At this point, you can nearly turn them over for ninety percent of their retail value in store credit, meaning your chance of any real loss is minimal, with it being unlikely to go up any time soon.

Anyone who watches the Vintage market heard about the recent buyout of Power and the new buy-list prices that followed. Though it is still unclear exactly what happened or where the dust will settle, I do not see these prices coming back down. I do believe they have a little room to settle, though, from where the public market currently is. I would be looking to use this opportunity to move out of my Power and into other staples for the Eternal formats, as they usually follow in suit with Power within a year. Playing this market can allow you to keep your money in Eternal staples while still finding more than just the average yearly returns it provides now. If you play this market correctly, you could be out and back into Power within a year, with a plethora of extras you picked up along the way. This is clearly not relevant to most people reading this series, so I will not elaborate here, but if you have any further questions about the market or where to go from here, feel free to contact me on Twitter.

The last card I want to touch on this week in terms of Eternal formats is Terminus. This card seems to be an odd pick given that it was just reprinted in a specialty product that can still be found on shelves, but bear with me for a moment. Miracles seems to be once again picking up steam given the added boost provided by the two draw-delve cards, and of course, Terminus slots nicely into these style of decks. Now think about the From the Vault box we just got; does it really make sense for someone to go out and buy a $40-and-up product if all he or she needs is this card? The problem with the FTV in my eyes is that the cards within are spread across so many different types of players that it rarely seems worth it for any one person to not just buy the few singles he or she wants from it. This in turn means fewer are opened, allowing the cards within to retain some value otherwise lost. We have seen very little movement overall with this card, even with a number of results over the past few months. I would be picking up any set copies I can find in trade and straying away from the FTV foils, as we all know how many issues those products have in terms of warping.

I am sure there are dozens of cards that may have small impacts on the market over the coming months, but this list should get those cogs turning and get people looking at Modern and Legacy results a little closer. If nothing else, these cards are good points to start if you are wondering where to begin picking some of the Eternal staples up. I would be interested to hear what you see going forward, both in terms of what to pick up and in terms of what to move now. With the possibility of Modern Masters 2 on the horizon, it has come that time again for everyone to begin moving into the fear of reprints, meaning if you are willing to take a little risk, you can find yourself rewarded greatly for some smart market moves.

Before I depart for the week, I want to give an updated idea of where I am with W/U Heroic and why my list is looking so different than many out there right now. I won’t focus too much on particular choices right now, as I am still testing some of the newer additions such as Meletis Astronomer. Overall, I am attempting to speed up the shell while finding ways other than Heliod's Pilgrim to obtain card advantage.

W/U Heroic ? Khans of Tarkir Standard | Ryan Bushard

As you can see, the board is now littered with main-deck scraps to shore up some of the matches. There seems to be a larger number of control and fast aggro strategies online, so though some of the deck may seem a bit strange for the paper metagame, it makes a little more sense when you give it context.

I don’t want to spend too much time this week on particular card choices, as I am sure they will change now that I am back and able to test more, but the general idea is that you want fewer of your lands to come into play tapped and almost always want something to do on turn one. The Hopeful Eidolon has been much better than expected, as it pairs well with Hero of Iroas, and it carries an Ordeal very well. I am still not super-pleased with the Feat of Resistances, and I may still make those Ephemeral Shields, but with there being more exile effects in the format now, I have found it to be a more difficult switch than before.

The overall game plan of the deck is slightly more linear given this build, as you do not have the Heliod's Pilgrims to let you run as many silver bullets, but I also find I have far more games in which I am able to play a guy on one or two, land an Ordeal, and protect it more easily. Stubborn Denial has been an all-star in this build. A turn-two Hero of Iroas or Battlewise Hoplite into a turn-three Ordeal with this up defines driver’s seat from what I have experienced. If you have any additions you would like me to test, throw them my way; I am more than willing to put the testing hours into the gauntlet, and no suggestion will be ignored given merit.

Next week, we will be returning to our usual format, looking at what Standard has in store and how the format has shaped up in the two weeks since we have really taken a close look. If there are any decks you feel I should be giving special attention to right now, shoot them my way, and I will see what I can do about fitting them in over the next few weeks. As always, thank you for reading, and a shout out to anyone who met up with me in New Jersey—the event was awesome, and meeting up with those who sought me out was a good time!

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand