As we come into the new year, we can look back at 2011 and see a great deal of change, both in the world and in Magic. We have seen the rise of a brand new play system, a huge jump and dive in prices, and the complete revamp of how we look at the pro system. With all this change happening so fast, it can be hard to look past the here and now.

This week, I would like to elaborate on an article I did last year that involved long-term investments. I covered the topic from the perspective of risk, detailing what should lead to a decision when one is looking to take Magic from a game to a money-making opportunity. I didn’t detail particular cards in depth; instead, I used dual lands, shock lands, and fetch lands as examples of each type of investment. This week, I want to go back to that subject with a different spin—I want to cover cards that you should be looking to pick up in the here and now for the future and describe my reasoning behind my decisions. If you would like to read the precursor to this article, it can be found here.

In the last article, I described cards that already had a significant value in the current market. Investments like this usually have a slow inflation that can be both tracked and predicted. The downside to this investment is, of course, the fact that these cards already have a marketable value and, therefore, are unlikely to hike overnight. Cards like these are best for people looking to take very little risk, while at the same time guaranteeing a small profit over the course of a few years. If you prefer to take a small risk in return for a likely smaller payday, this article is for you.

Let’s start by looking at a few cards currently in print that have a high potential to increase over the course of the next few years. Being able to pick out cards to hold on to when a set first comes out is among the many things that divide a fulltime floor trader from a player. When I look at a spoiler, I look for far more than just Standard-playable cards. I look beyond current playability into potential future use across a multitude of formats.

How many people guessed Doubling Season would one day be a $25 card?

It’s the ability to read cards such as this that create the true long-term profits. Naturally, this doesn’t come without its risks, so ensuring you don’t overpay in the here and now is a major part of the investment process. Learning how to identify a card’s potential price point and evaluate how long it will take to hit that mark allows you to decide what you are willing to pay in the current market.

Let’s take a card similar to Doubling Season for this example. Parallel Lives has all of the same casual appeal as its predecessor and looks to be just as big of a hit someday in the Commander and casual markets. With a precedent already set, it makes cards easier to evaluate and reduces the risk, allowing us to be more certain about a particular investment. In this case, there are clearly some major differences between the two enchantments, such as the sets they were printed in and how many of each is likely to hit the market. Given the fact that I don’t have exact print numbers for Ravnica or Innistrad, we instead have to use some deductive reasoning in scenarios such as these.

First, we can look at how common any particular rare is now, as compared to the pre-mythic days, and see that the current available copies, assuming Innistrad and Ravnica sold the same amount, would be about twenty-five percent more. This, of course, doesn’t account for the old virtual mythic system wherein rares were printed in different amounts per sheet. From there, we have to look at the popularity of each set during the time it was printed. Given Innistrad’s gothic theme, it has been embraced heavily with the casual and Vorthos crowd, the most likely group to be seeking a card such as Parallel Lives.

The last major factor that I feel most people miss when comparing modern day prints to older cards is the era in which it was printed. During Ravnica, Commander was but a kitchen table game, likely played by a few in some way shape or form, but not accepted by the masses yet. This means cards like Doubling Season would be looked at as complete garbage during its printing and left by the wayside. With no outlet for such cards, many were probably lost or destroyed as a bulk rare—this has likely contributed to why the current price tag is so high. Given everyone’s current knowledge of Commander and a variety of other casual formats, people are less likely to just discard anything that is remotely playable. This means that down the line, there will be a few factors that contribute to a significantly greater number of Parallel Lives in the market as compared to Doubling Seasons today.

Does this make it a bad investment? Certainly not; I just want you to understand why Parallel Lives will probably never hold the same price tag as Doubling Season, and in turn, keep that in mind when investing.

Card: Parallel Lives

Current price: $1 to $2

Investment period: Two to three years

Price point: $8 to $10

Expected resale: $5 to $6

Gain on investment (per year): 100% or more

Verdict: Given the card’s obvious place in both Commander and casual play, I can’t see a reason this card wouldn’t hit the price point within the given window. With that in mind, I would attempt to pick up any copies I can under $1 and gain extras from throw-ins on trades over the next few months. I included a resale price because one of the questions I receive the most when talking about Magic cards as an investment opportunity is the realistic resale. It is unlikely you will make full retail for any card unless you know someone who is in need or you own a store. If neither of these is the case, you will probably be selling them to a dealer down the line, and it is important to factor in the loss on sales when looking to have an idea of what you have to gain.

Card: Kessig Cagebreakers

Current price: Under $1

Investment period: One year

Price point: $5 to $6

Expected resale: $3

Gain on investment: 300%

Verdict: This is a slightly riskier investment than a casual card such as Parallel Lives because of the fact that you are looking for this card to hit in Standard, a far more volatile market. However, if we look at previous examples, such as Hero of Bladehold, we can see how powerful such an effect can be. The fact that we are only one set into a graveyard-based block bodes well for this finisher. Unlike Hero of Bladehold, Cagebreakers is in a color far more suited to guys hitting the graveyard and making it into play faster. Although he is not a mythic I feel he has the same playability down the line at some point as Hero and it should spike, if only briefly, for long enough for you to make a solid profit.

Card: Skaab Ruinator

Current price: $2 to $4

Investment period: One year

Price point: $10 to $12

Gain on investment: 300%

Verdict: Before I wrap up this week, I want to cover a mythic that I feel just doesn’t have a justifiable reason to be so low in price. Even with his drawback, this guy is no joke and can turn a game around nicely after an opponent’s Wrath effect. I feel that he just has not found his home and that the same things I said about Cagebreakers also applies here; we are, after all, only one set in. With the potential to be a game ender in any sort of Dredge-based Standard deck that may crop up, I would not be surprised to see his price spike higher than anticipated at some point. Mythics are the next generation of sleepers given the number printed compared to regular rares. If one crops up in a deck, it is unlikely to do worse than to double in price, and because of this, mythics are the cards to watch the closest when they begin to fall to these levels. A perfect example that my friend Jon Medina called good a while back is Angelic Destiny. Given the fact that it once sat at under $5 and has been as high as $20 at times, it is easy to see how a small shift in the metagame can mean a big shift in the market.

That’s all I have for this week, but this is just the tip of the iceberg as far as investments go. I will come back headstrong into a whole column filled with this same kind of information to get your investments started. I feel that there are a great deal of cards currently overlooked across every format, and that if you take the proper position on them, you can stand to profit from them. Next week or the week after, I also hope to start posting trades again as the season starts kicking off in Austin Texas this weekend. Now that the holidays are over, it’s time to get back in the swing of things, starting off a season full of GPs and PTQs. Let me know if there are any questions or if you have any input into the articles. I hope to hear from you and perhaps see you soon at an event this year!

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand