In a World of Reprints

Posted on April 4, 2014

As anyone who is reading this article probably already knows, this is the year of Modern. Not only has the format exploded, but we have seen a ton of price spikes and reprints along the way to keep the market ever-moving. That is well and good if you are a financial mind first and always on top of the market, but unless you have a fulltime job in the business, keeping up on prices can be daunting. This week, I want to focus on what you should be targeting as a player for Eternal formats in general, but focusing on Modern.

I have been staying away from most of the mass buyouts over the past few months, and that has really let me stretch my focus into more relevant subject matter for long-term gain. We all want to have that next major spike, and I still encourage you to take stock in some cards that are under the radar, but this article is for those of you who are mostly just looking to fund a collection and want to know where to start. I imagine I will miss a number of important cards if I start mentioning names, so understand that the cards I use as examples are merely guidelines, not necessarily the only cards that fit that parameter.

Some cards in Modern are out of the price range of the casual player, meaning Modern is already going to take some commitment and money to get into, but knowing what cards to pour into and when can help you keep that budget in check and stretch your dollar to fill out more staples.

The first group of cards I want to mention are the fetches. These are likely to be reprinted within the next six months or so, and depending on the medium, that could initially tank the price. I would wait until the announcement happens and begin to watch the market. The retail price may not change much initially, but as you watch the public market race to get rid of their copies, you can probably snag some pretty cheap. As with shocks, at this point, it just makes sense to buy in when everyone else is content getting rid of them for cheap. This time next year, shocks will probably be fetching $10 or more across the board, and if there are no more reprints before that point, we may even see some hit the $20-or-higher mark given enough Modern play.

The reality is anything that sees play in that format is already in low supply, and the fact that shocks are readily available doesn’t mean there is not enough outside of Standard to lift that price as they become harder to find. With the growth of the game, we have really seen a new pattern emerge on reprints that are heavily played, such as Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf. These cards would have probably been sitting at less than $50 right now had Modern not appeared, but with the increased demand, even the reprint was not enough to drop the price for more than just a moment. That moment, in fact, is the key to getting into reprints. It has held true for set-printed cards such as Mutavault and Thoughtseize as well—as both of them start to make the climb even while in Standard. The days of waiting to acquire staples after a reprint are gone; stores are moving their prices down less and less, and the increased supply has made little to no impact on some of these prices.

These concepts show a clear, month-long window to jump in on the bottom shortly after a reprint, and from there, beyond a few small market blips, these cards tend to hold a fairly steady upward trend. This is not to say every card is safe from the bulk bin when they are reprinted, which is why I believe picking up the cards as they come should be factored by how much play they see. Some cards will hold more value than they should due to potential playability that never quite works out, but almost all of them have that lull when the price is finally right to move in.

Casual staples tend to take longer, and therefore, they usually have a floor that is even lower than presale, but for the eternally-playable staples, it seems that once the second set after they are printed has come out, their prices are at all-time lows, even with Standard demand. Of course, if you are not one to wait until reprints, the best place to start is with cards that have been reprinted already—Cryptic Command comes to mind. Being printed as a rare—twice—has not deterred this card from topping $40 everywhere, and though that seems steep, it will probably be a while before you can move in any cheaper. It is also important to remember that the fact that you pick up a card and it is reprinted does not mean you made a mistake. If you have something when it is announced, don’t rush to sell it for whatever value you can find; instead, hold on to it to play with, and use it or forget it for a few months—or even years. Many times, cards will rebound before the one-year mark, and some will even reach prices higher than where they started.

The same statement can be said about Legacy, though that format almost has a cheat sheet for you in the form of the reserved list. It is worth noting, however, that you should not worry about cards like Force of Will or Wasteland being reprinted; that is just the cycle of things. It may take a little longer to recover from the hit given how slowly the market moves comparatively, but you also won’t probably lose as much value, as the reprint is not usually in a set printing.

I am not saying you should go pick up every Modern staple now, though that probably would be a win for you in the long run, even with reprints. Instead, I just want people to understand that reprints of competitive cards tend to do very little toward actually dropping the long-term value while still providing a window for availability. These reprinting opportunities can also be used to push more copies of cards like Door of Destinies onto the market, thus allowing anyone who didn’t want in at the $10 range a cheap chance to pick up their copies. These types of cards are usually ones I look to pick up about a year after their releases—or sooner if they drop quickly enough. But after that point, we do begin to again see upward movement, as the demand begins to once again draw from the supply.

Keeping an eye on reprints will also give you an idea of cards that are hot for the presses in the coming sets based on themes. If you are looking to pick anything that could be in that year’s block and up, you know it may be best to hold off until the sets have fully released. That being said, waiting for every card to be reprinted is unrealistic for anyone looking to seriously play Modern, so you sometimes just have to bite the bullet and shell out a little more now, knowing that the card will probably be dropping. Just knowing that the future trajectory is still positive makes that choice hurt a little less in the long run. With the ever-growing demand this game brings, it seems we will need a lot more reprints down the pipes to really make a dent in the blooming financial end of Modern, but given the position we are in now, it is still a fine time to buy in now if you are selective and patent.

Thank you, as always, for reading, I do not have a subject lined up for next week, as I have a show this weekend and have been busy preparing things around the house for setup, so if anyone has a mailbag question he or she would like answered or a specific topic he or she would like me to touch on, please let me know. I will probably use a potpourri strategy with next week, dedicating a paragraph or two to a few subjects, so if you have had anything you wanted to ask about specifically, now is a great time.

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand