A Little Bit of Housecleaning

Posted on April 18, 2014

These past few weeks have been a blur of being on the road, at home working, and cleaning and tax prep. With my mind fully well ready to process thoughts again, there came to me a few topics to talk about. Some of these topics, such as the Vintage hype that is brewing, I will revisit again when there is more information, but some require nothing more than a paragraph.

Cleaning Up

The first thing on my agenda this past week was to clean up my house. I mentioned this on the podcast this week, but you will be amazed what you can find. I might be a bit of a unique, case as my house is my office and thus is filled to the ceiling with Magic cards, so treasures surround, but even a peek in the attic may surprise you. The Magic cards were, of course, obvious to me, but still, a few good finds made the cleaning bearable. What really surprised me were some of the other things lying around: old video games and collectibles from across my childhood. Even Lego sets from when I was a kid have some relative value that made them worth holding onto. This is not to say I am going to sell my childhood away, but it at least was a good reminder to watch what I throw away.

While cleaning my house, I also found all of the chaff that also comes with the constant supply of collections. I have a mountain of empty boxes in my office and a smaller mole hill of other card games that have come and gone. World of Warcraft has very little value outside of some of the chases and the loot cards, and most games follow suite with this or become worth nothing at all. Other, still-current games, such as Yu-Gi-Oh! and Pokémon hold much stronger bulk numbers than Magic in general, so throwing those away is almost always the wrong move. Most games, even those such as The Spoils, which I have played through the years, have died off like WoW, but some have hidden followings still, such as the Star Wars TCG. The reboot did relatively nothing for the game, but the original is still played by people all around, and you may even have some locals who would like to get their hands on the cards. Of course, throwing almost anything away related to Star Wars is incorrect, but in this case, I have found them relatively easy to move anyway. One last one to keep an eye out for is the Dragon Ball Z card game. There are also old cards depicting scenes from the show, and both hold some value. I was surprised to find this one out, but we have moved them, though relatively slowly, for strong prices.

Sky Is Falling

On the subject of strong prices, let us return to Magic for a moment. I have been reading a lot of the usual sky-is-falling nonsense lately on the new price of duals, and although I am not going to rant about the subject, just understand that the price of duals has dramatically increased due to, not just the usual supply dwindling, but also the number of people moving from Modern to Legacy. For the past six or so months, I have been encouraging people, as have many others, to buy into Eternal staples and to leave the Modern market to the risk-takers. This is not to say I wouldn’t buy into obviously undercosted cards; it is just that I do not want to play the game of who can dump his or her copies first. That being said, it is only natural that a lot of people would start looking at their fetch lands and other staples on the level of dual lands, and those who could afford to suddenly make the jump into Legacy due to the increased values in their collections did so. I have not only seen a steady growth in Modern from primarily Standard players, but I have seen many of those same people now interested in Legacy—or, if they prefer to stay casual, Commander. No matter the format, the idea is that, with the increased player base and influx in Modern prices, Legacy suddenly became more accessible, and now we have the result of that. Many people are scapegoating particular stores and saying this is malicious, but the fact is they are wrong. Normally, I would not be so confrontational in the matter, and if you have some valid point, please post it, but pointing fingers is incorrect.

The fact is that these larger retailers began to dwindle on stock as many of these Modern players made the jump to Legacy. With this, we also saw a slight downward shift in many Modern staples as more copies were traded in. The numbers are there—you just have to know what they mean. This is not something devious or plotted, but instead, it’s a result of that same group of players deciding to buy in. When this happens, the market must acquire new copies, and if the supply is not adequate, stores must raise their buy prices—with this, their margins shrink until they adjust the retail. This probably all seems simple, but in the case of duals, many people are wondering why some of them nearly doubled in price, and that brings us to part two of this process. Suddenly, the buy price increases, but people still aren’t willing to sell at the new prices, as the retail also just increased, and many people who are buying duals are now sitting on them. And yes, some people hold for profit, but the truth is many are sleeved up and unlikely to be available any time soon. In order to acquire more, you have to raise the price to a point at which some of those people are willing to drop them—most of these players will then look to another format with their newfound money, but more on that in a second. I have seen this in effect from my end as, suddenly, people who were holding on to Cubes and extra Legacy decks are now ready to part for the value. This does not mean the sky is falling. Will Underground Sea still be above $300? Yes, and honestly, you can still find cheap copies—around $200—if that is what you seek, but the reality is the cards are again entering hands that are unlikely to part with them for some time. This has happened numerous times, and it almost always begins with the real estate first.

Buying In

As I mentioned, many people who are moving Legacy staples now have some extra money, and I have noticed a great deal of them suddenly eyeing Power. A year ago, it would have taken nearly a set of Seas to snag anything better than a basic Mox, but with this price gap closing suddenly, that same set can buy you two—sometimes even three—pieces. This makes Vintage look much more enticing, and though it certainly has its limitations on card availability, that gap, for a short time, is open. If you have watched the market over the years, this is usually an effect that occurs after the arrival of a new format, and Vintage is usually the last to see an effect. If you have any inclination on playing the format, it is best to acquire what you can now, both in paper and online, because this year, I imagine, we will be seeing the first Unlimited Edition Mox peak above a grand. This is not to say you should be buying into Vintage for value. Though there is certainly money to be made, you will find having a ton of Power and expensive staples can sometimes be a hassle to move. Picking up a few pieces here and there seems fine, as many people already do that anyway, but don’t dump your whole stock into the format unless you plan on sitting on it for a while.

I know these all seems like separate events, but when you look at the way the Magic market is, it is very unique in that each format has its own individual market. Similar to the way stocks work, Magic is best to be spread in across multiple platforms. Everyone has his or her own methods, but for me, Standard is my consistent money, while Modern tends to be the gambler in me, and I like to have enough of Legacy and Vintage in case something goes wrong elsewhere.

I know I covered a lot this week without going into much detail on any one subject, but if you have any questions or comments, please leave them below. As always, thank you for reading, and shoot me some more ideas for future articles. This week was inspired by some of your feedback, and I feel that it came out well. If you have a disagreement or would like to add something, please don’t hesitate. I look forward to what people think and to hear if there is anything else I may have overlooked.

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand