Spoiler Journey

Posted on April 24, 2014

My favorite time of the season is upon us again, and as always, I am super-stoked to take my first real look at Journey into Nyx. After looking over this spoiler, I have to say I am slightly more enthused by Journey than I was Born of the Gods, but outside of the mythics, I feel there are a lot of cards that are, as always, overpriced to start. Of course, I will be continuing with the usual formatting it seems most prefer, and as usual, I will be moving past the bulk quickly to maximize discussion on the cards I feel have some value. I have, in the past, been viewing cards mostly on a short-term basis, and I will again write a follow-up in a few weeks when cards hit their regular strides without the prerelease bump, and I’ll talk about the long-term value.

Aegis of the Gods felt like a snap at $5 for preorder, but as I looked into the card and compared it to Spirit of the Labyrinth, I came to my senses and believe this time that this type of card is correctly priced in the $2 to $3 range. The effect may prove more useful at some point than Spirit, and it may spike due to that, but I don’t see it going up a ton right to start. Would love to be proven wrong here, but I just don’t see the need for this card overall in the current meta, and it is extremely fragile.

Battlefield Thaumaturge seems to be a card I would love to play, and it would probably thrive given the right environment. It protects itself and allows you to play strive far more efficiently, but the problem arises again that these decks just don’t have a leg to stand on against control and devotion. I expect this to act a lot like Satyr Firedancer did, with the fringe play that keeps the price stable for a bit before dropping softly to the just-above-bulk range.

Bearer of the Heavens – I love the effect, but it’s still as bulk as can be.

Daring Thief seems to be a strong pick up this weekend at bulk. Even if this guy doesn’t see any real play, people will latch onto the concept of stealing creatures for tokens, and the casual appeal alone should give you a good outlet for trade. Whenever a cool effect like this shows up for preorder as bulk, I always find it to be safer to snag a few copies, as you can’t really lose money even if they do stagnate.

Dawnbringer Charioteers – Bulk

Deicide, while certainly something people are very split over, is the type of card like Rest in Peace that will be very niche in Standard as the format adjusts to it, and it will probably end up on a similar trajectory over the next few months as they move from main decks to sideboards and slowly start to not even be in some seventy-fives.

Dictate of Erebos is probably overpriced now, as I expect it to be nearly bulk before it spikes, but with the price of the overprinted Grave Pact still topping $10, expect this to hold long-term value for a replacement in budget decks if nothing else. It will probably just become most decks’ second copies, so watch for this to bottom out, and then jump in while you can.

Dictate of Heliod is just above bulk and has a chance to see some play, but given the cost and what deck you want the effect in, the play will be limited at best, meaning this is probably right where the card belongs.

Dictate of Karametra, on the other hand, feels like an effect many people have been seeking for a while, and it may even have a chance to go up. I can’t see this card going any lower than $1, and if it does, that is probably a fine time to buy in for the long term—that seems to be the trend with these Dictates.

Dictate of Kruphix, while very sweet and finally calling to the Howling Mine lovers, does seem to have hit the short-term ceiling. I don’t know if this card can see much Standard play, but even if it does, it will probably be too fringe to drive a card such as this above $3.

Dictate of the Twin Gods is, for me, as expected, the worst of the cycle, and unless some all-in deck comes around that can support the effect, it will stay at the bulk—or nearly-bulk—price it currently has.

Doomwake Giant – Bulk

Eidolon of Blossoms is, of course, a card I would love to play, but even if something does come of the card, it will be too niche to see anything above the current price unless it somehow dominates the format. I don’t see that happening, so even with my love for these effects, I cannot advocate keeping them.

Eidolon of the Great Revel brings people back to the Pyrostatic Pillar days, and though that effect is certainly good, I don’t know if enough decks—or even the right deck—can do well enough to keep this card at the current presale. The deck that would want this card currently would also probably be the one taking all of the damage, and given the choice of 2-drops in the format, I am not sure this is even your first pick.

Extinguish All Hope is right where it should be; I would love to see a deck that could play this to an advantage, but as is, black just has other plans that it is currently much better at.

Hall of Triumph will certainly be a hit down the line, and at just above bulk, I don’t hate trading for these now. They will probably hit bulk unless the current demand can keep up, but even if you start stashing them right away, you won’t regret that decision in a year or two.

Harness by Force seems to be a card that should see some play, but outside the mana-flood it would take decks that want this to cast it for any real extra value, it is such an expensive card it just doesn’t seem to fit.

Heroes' Bane – Bulk for now

Hydra Broodmaster will probably fall before it sees any price hikes, but as with any Hydra, it is certainly good to keep a constant eye on the supply, and value for it will go back up down the road.

Hypnotic Siren has to be among the stranger cards they have printed for how far off the two effects are. On one hand, you have a 1/1 flyer for 1. This, of course, is fairly underwhelming, though with an extra effect, the 1/1 flyer for 1 has shown playability in the form of Judge's Familiar. In this case, though, it seems the extra boost you would be required to play this card for the bestow cost suddenly takes it out of range for any deck that would want to use it as a 1/1. The same holds true for the control decks from the other direction, and for that reason, I just can’t see this being played.

King Macar, the Gold-Cursed is a phenomenally designed card from a flavor aspect, but I just don’t see it holding up in anything competitive. Good to see the gold mechanic put to use again though.

Launch the Fleet requires a lot of setup for a sorcery-speed card that can easily be played around and is expected upon the time of attack. The idea of playing this next to Battlefield Thaumaturge feels like a dream—one that will never come to fruition.

Mana Confluence is clearly a solid card. Clearly, City of Brass is a hit, and people want to play with it, but I do not believe this card can hold $20 unless every mono-colored devotion deck suddenly fades away. I am stoked to see this card for Legacy Dredge, but I know I will be waiting to pick up my set. If this holds, expect City of Brass to spike, but I imagine it will settle down to $10 or less over time.

Master of the Feast is another clear favorite for me in the set, but at $4 preorder, I cannot imagine this holding. The number of decks that can support this are limited, and to negate the negative effect takes a very select archetype; that alone prevents me from believing this can grow from $4. Perhaps it can sustain for a short while, but it will probably not go up.

Pheres-Band Warchief – Bulk

Polymorphous Rush – Bulk

Revel of the Fallen God – Bulk

Scourge of Fleets – Bulk

Setessan Tactics has a lot of potential in a deck like R/G Monsters that may lack some of the larger removal, and as such, I believe it will hold above bulk unlike a lot of the set. I don’t know that the fringe playability would be enough to entice me to buy in, but I will be trading for a couple this weekend if I can.

Silence the Believers will follow suit of most other removal spells like it, and I expect it to be $3 at some point and nearly bulk at others. The current price seems about correct for a starting point.

Skybind – Bulk

Spawn of Thraxes – Bulk

Temples seem to be right where they should be—they’ll probably drop over time, but I see them holding $6 to $8 over the first few weeks.

Twinflame – Bulk

As I did last time, I will hit a few key mythics I feel may be slightly underpriced, but as usual, most are just good to move at the current prices if you can, so there is little point in talking about where they will settle if you are looking to move them regardless. When I reproach the set from a long-term perspective, I will cover most of the mythics in greater detail, but for now, let’s talk about the possible hits.

This time around, the only card I don’t hate at presale price is Kruphix, God of Horizons. I feel even the $10 to $12 may be fair, but given the other prices, we are unlikely to see much else from the mythic department in terms of growth. Ajani, Mentor of Heroes and Athreos, God of Passage are unlikely to hold their current high-dollar values, though the God has the best chance. I don’t see this as a Dragon’s Maze, as there are more than just one or two good mythics, meaning even if Athreos did spike, it would probably not be enough to warrant picking them up now.

As always, thank you for reading, and have a great prerelease weekend. Mine will be filled with sleepless nights and a lot of gaming, and I hope the same holds true for most of you. Next week, I will go further in depth on some of the new cards and what roles they fill in the current meta after I have seen some testing and results. At that point, you will be able to see a few trending cards to snag before the format solidifies. If you have anything to add, as always I welcome all comments and suggestions.

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand