Modern Masters is finally upon us, and by time you read this article, I, along with many of you, will have already cracked your first pack. After seeing the complete spoiler, many people are let down due to some of the more unfortunate reprints such as the Dragon cycle; I am not deterred. I find this set to be extremely interesting both in Limited and in the financial market. Since you are certainly not here to read my views on the format, though I do have a competitive history concentrating on Limited, I will keep it brief and get into the financial goods you all are looking for.
I believe Modern Masters is extremely unique in the sense that we are not looking at a format of mana bases and managing multicolored commitments such as Ravnica nor are we managing tribal themes or prioritizing artifacts to balance mechanics like affinity. Instead, we are doing all of these things at once. Of all the sets I have played in Limited, this most closely resembles Time Spiral block to me—a number of subthemes existed at once all lending to each other allowing for some of the most interesting interactions. I believe Modern Masters will prove to be one of the most skill-testing Draft formats we have; Sealed may be slightly more clunky, but still enjoyable. Learning how to manage Faeries in a deck using affinity changes your view on cards such as Faerie Mechanist; it is very interesting to see how some cards that were serviceable in their original formats now get a huge bump in pick order or how other cards suddenly don’t make the cut. The point is that I am excited to see how Vegas pans out, and I would not be surprised to see a stacked Top 8, as many of history’s best drafters will probably be there for what will be the largest Magic event—I have to imagine. If you are going to be in Vegas, say “hey;” I will be playing in my first Grand Prix in years, so I feel I should be available to chat at the trade tables come Round 3.
Enough of my babbling already; let’s get down to what we came here to do. Yes, we are all a little crushed the Dragon cycle got the nod; no, it is not the end of the world. The average price or a pack is around $20, meaning even with some junk cards, there is plenty of money to be made, both in buying sealed product and in singles. The expected result of all of the demand from what I have heard locally among store owners is that they are expecting a call Saturday letting them know a second run is coming. For this reason, many store owners that have any leftover product will probably be looking to sell it before the end of the weekend. If you can find any deals at all, I encourage you to take it. After gathering information this past month, it seems the allotted totals for each store has equated to a 5% product increase or less among cards printed in Modern Masters. With this information, we should feel far more comfortable even with a second run—probably half of what the first was—going in on a number of these cards that have recently hit a low. Next week, I will cover prices and particular cards, but since the market has not yet shifted, I feel this week is best left to general effects of the set.
The first major topic I want to cover is the reprinting of commons and uncommons, and I am more referring to the smaller-but-still-better-than-bulk cards such as Etherium Sculptor. In regards to these cards, I would still be picking them from bulk, but expect the competitive players to be unloading a ton of new ones to the market. Unlike Duel Decks reprints, this product will be consumed by the competitive crowd, and when they open cards such as Mind Funeral, all they are looking to do with them is dump them to vendors or other outlets. Unlike the competitive staples such as Kitchen Finks that will probably be held for play, the market will suddenly be flooded by these casual staples, meaning I expect a much higher decline in price from those than anything played at the competitive level. Most cards will remain on the buy list, and some may fluctuate very little, but I do expect a general decline to somewhere between 50% and 75% of current buy list prices. It is also important to note that many of the Duel Decks versions of cards, especially those with alternate art, have shown to hold a small premium, meaning it may be wiser to pick up new copies over old ones given there will probably only be around 5% of them on the market as compared to the original set.
So, what about the rares? Some will probably plummet in price given they’re already in a stagnate state, but I expect most of the high-demand cards to drop less than 10% and potentially have broken even again by Modern season. For example, Doubling Season has listed for $15 to $20 now for a few years, fluctuating up or down based on things like judge foils and new interactions being printed. This usually puts the retail somewhere in the $30 to $35 range, but if we examine eBay even a few months ago, they were going as low as $13 with free shipping. This means the retail price has stagnated because the demand has now died off, and the real world has adjusted while retail usually takes slightly longer to catch the downward trend. With the demand already low, even a 5% increase in supply could be all we need to see the market finally adjust and have Doubling Season drop as low as $10 to $15. I welcome $10 Doubling Seasons due to some sound logic a good friend of mine, fellow cohost on Brainstorm Brewery and writer here at GatheringMagic Jason Alt, bestowed upon me. The cards that the casual market thrives on sit around the $10 mark because that is somewhat of a threshold I feel for that market as far as what is considered a reasonable purchase for a card. Although I do, on occasion, sell Doubling Seasons, it is far more rare than, say, a card such as Vexing Devil or—to give a non-Standard example—Lord of the Undead. These types of cards stay in high demand due to their prices in part, and with reprints of cards such as Lord, we see a slower price increase than in something printed once as time progresses. These reprints keep the market moving while cards such as Doubling Season stagnate in the retail world. With a price update, I expect to move a great deal more Doubling Seasons in the coming months, and with that increased demand established, we will again see the price go up over time.
As for the mythics, I expect a few of them will see enough of a price drop due solely on scarcity, making them prime targets for long-term holds until the next Modern Pro Tour Qualifier season. I am uncertain which cards will fluctuate and by how much, but over the next few weeks, keep an eye out and follow any financial avenues you can—I expect a number of cards will be rapidly shifting, and if you get in on the ground floor, you could find yourself turning quite the profit. I know this probably doesn’t answer all the longing questions you have, but without knowledge of the exact print runs, it is hard to figure out where cards will settle. By next week, we will know if there is in fact a second run and exactly how quickly we will have it on shelves, so keep your eyes on Twitter and other social media sites for updates.
Before I depart for the week, I want to cover one last topic that most of you have probably put in the back of your minds over the past few months. Back at the beginning of the year, I asked readers for a submission by e-mail detailing what fifteen mythics would be in Modern Masters. At the time, I was amped for the number of responses I received, and in turn, I expected someone to crack the grand prize. This week, I opened my spreadsheet with everyone’s guesses and searched for the winners . . . here is the breakdown.
14 Points: All of the previous prizes PLUS a From the Vault: Realms!
Winners: 0
13 Points: Box of Dragon's Maze
Winners: 0
12 Points: Zendikar fetch land of your choice
Winners: 0
Okay, this is getting to be a bit disheartening. I had to imagine someone would at least guess Kokusho and Yosei together to maybe win a fetch anyway . . . but alas, here we are without a winner, and I think you can imagine how this ends.
11 Points: Original set shock land of your choice (See, I want to make Modern cheaper for you, too!)
Winners: 0
10 Points: Draft set of Dragon's Maze
Winners: 0 . . .
I truly didn’t see this happening given just how many people submitted, and as of now, I am not sure how to proceed. I really want to reward at least one person for coming close. I have a few people who guessed eight of the fourteen, and with the bonus point making it nine, those were the closest submissions. On the other hand, a number of people came very close to naming fifteen cards that were in the set—just not all at mythic. I am looking for some community involvement here. Let me know what you think I should do—both groups are about the same size, and although I don’t think anyone came close enough to earn the grand prize, I can happily see sending someone a box for at least being the closest out of a few hundred submissions. The vote is on you. Let me know what you think should be done, and check in next week as I go deeper into Modern Masters and award some prizes.
[poll id=233]
The fate of this box rests in your hands . . .
Ryan Bushard
@CryppleCommand on Twitter
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