The most common question at a draft seems to be how you interpret signals and when you should switch colors. There are no hard-and-fast rules, and sometimes after the draft I will regret not having switched colors midway through. I want to use this article to run through the logic you should be considering when choosing when to switch and also how to look for signals.

What Is Missing?

You can get a lot of information from a pack by looking at what cards are left and then making assumptions based on what is missing. I hate Pick 1 of the draft. It is exciting to crack the first booster and see if you opened some awesome mythic, but the stress of Pick 1 is horrible. I would estimate that in about 30% of drafts, I do not end up running my first pick, as I get cut from that color. Given the first pick in a pack should be the most powerful card, this is obviously sad, but there is not much you can do about that. However, moving on from that pick, you start to get information as soon as Pick 2. Is the rare gone? An uncommon? A common? Is a particular strong card in a color left? If I see a pack missing a rare, I don’t like to assume much about the colors left. If I see a pack missing a common or uncommon, I consider what good cards are left and what I might have taken over them. For example, Serra Angel with an uncommon missing will suggest either Overrun or Mind Control and also strongly suggest you will get a nice White feed from your right. If a Serra Angel is left and a common is missing, I will look strangely at the person next to me and know that it had to have been a foil bomb or Doom Blade, and even that is dubious. This logic is good for the first few picks in a pack but gets harder as the amount of information you have dilutes. However, if you see the above situation, you should look to see if Blue cards come through to you, as then your neighbor took an Overrun and you can probably draft Blue if you desire.

What Is That Doing In There?

Although after the first few picks you probably can’t make educated guesses about exactly what cards have been taken to your right, you can start to look for what colors are being underdrafted. This is very valuable information, because you will get good cards in that color for Pack 3. Ideally, I aim to focus on one color in Pack 1; however, during the pack, if there is a late card in a particular color that seems odd (e.g., a fifth-pick Stormblood Berserker), I will take it. It is a strong card and the fact it is still in the pack could well indicate that the color is open to me. By picking up a few good cards in one or two other colors, I leave myself open to opening a bomb or seeing a further signal as to which way I should go. For example, last week, I had been passed a Serra Angel Pick 2 and had drafted most of the White flyers that went past. I had also picked up a late AEther Adept and a Bloodrage Vampire. I had seen a couple of late Mind Rots, so maybe Black was open, but not much else in Blue. However, Pack 2 I got passed a second-pick Mind Control, which I took and cemented my position in Blue. While I was unlikely to get more in Pack 3, I had received lots of White in that direction from Pack 1, so I would probably get plenty of playable cards even if I received no good Blue cards. I got to pick up juicy Blue cards during this pack because the color was open in that direction, which complemented my deck wonderfully.

How to Tell if a Color Is Open

Working out if a color is open is not that hard if you think about it. It is seeing a card of high quality go late; therefore, you need to how to evaluate the relative value of cards. For example, if I see a fifth-pick Overrun (yes, this has actually happened to me), I know that Green is open and I will immediately pick it. Sometimes, the signal is less clear and may come over several picks. You receive a booster at Pick 5 and it has an AEther Adept, which is a strong pick in Blue. Now, either this pack had several good Blue cards, or the people next to you are not picking them. Assuming I’m not already in Blue and there is nothing I want to support my main color, I will take the Adept. If next pick I see a Merfolk Looter, I’m going to be surprised if anyone upstream of me is heavily committed to Blue, and I will take this card and start drafting Blue.

Don’t Be Too Indecisive

Seeing that a color is open does not always mean you should switch into it. By “switching,” I don’t mean selecting a second color by working out what is open to you. That is what we have just been looking at. Instead, I mean deliberately deciding to no longer play G/W and switching to U/W because Blue is open. Let’s take a moment to remember the dangers of switching. If you flit around too much, you won’t end up with enough cards to build your deck. I’ve certainly had a draft where I took good cards is several different colors and ended up with some sort of awful deck which couldn’t actually win. If you waste too many picks on speculative cards because the color might be open, you will end up with a weak deck. You may also end up distracted by cards that are good in the abstract rather than picking up what you need. Sure, Day of Judgment is good, but if you are an aggressive deck, the on-color Skywinder Drake is going to serve you much better. Equally, Shock is a fine card, but if it’s going to be an off-color splash card and you already have enough removal, you should probably pick up a utility creature instead.

When to Switch

Assuming I don’t see some awesome bomb in Pack 2, when do I switch? Well, I normally don’t. It is rare that I end up committing early to two colors such that I have to pitch half of my draft to change color, which is really what we are talking about. However, if I started in two colors and I am seeing a lot of a third, I will necessarily end up picking cards in that color, as nothing better is available. A few weeks back, I was drafting Green in Pack 1 after taking a Pick 1 Oblivion Ring and then seeing a constant stream of good-quality Green cards. Toward the end of the pack, I saw a nice feed of late Black cards. I had seen no other notable White, so I assume the player next to me was drafting it. I was expecting to end up G/B splashing White. However, in Pack 2, after about Pick 5, I saw no further Green or Black cards and ended up taking back-to-back Arbalest Elites and a few other nice White picks. When in Pack 3 I opened another Oblivion Ring, I decided to simply make White my other dominant color and actually run the Elites and pitch the Black, which had become rather lackluster. It was close, but I managed to gather just enough playable cards. The switch to White was definitely worth it. However, if I had not stay open-minded about the switch, I would have ended up with a much worse deck.

The Benefits of Staying Open

I would rather leave myself open to a second color than commit heavily to two straightaway, thus avoiding the need for the difficult switch decision. For example, picking an Overrun and following it up with a Vampire Outcasts is going to be a very heavy commitment. I would rather take a respectable utility creature like Giant Spider or a card I will be able to splash if it ends up off-color, such as Shock, as this will make my drafting go more smoothly. That way, in Pack 2, if you open the sort of bomb that can’t be ignored—like a Titan or planeswalker—you will be in a position to accommodate the change of plan. If I have committed to two colors more evenly than I would like, I will still take the bomb and try to move into that color if possible. This is not the case in Pack 3. With the exception of Chandra, none of these cards is splashable (unless the draft has gone really badly), and I will normally pass them for a good on-color card and hope the person feeding me has had similar bad luck and will pass me something sweet. I will take the card if there is nothing super-great for me in the pack and I already have a strong pool. In this case, it is a matter of timing. It is simply too late to be able to pick up enough cards to make it worth switching colors. By this point, you normally have two primary colors and will have spent a number of picks gathering these cards for your deck. By switching now, you throw away a lot of your hard-earned cards. Furthermore, there is no guarantee you will see any good cards in that color, as someone near you should be in that color since you are not.

There are no hard-and-fast rules about this sort of thing. When you are doing your next draft, try to keep in mind the things I have talked about here and see if you can see more signals. The best way to learn is to practice, and when you aren’t practicing, to think over what went well and what did not. Did you see lots of Green cards and think to yourself that it was open—but fail to make the switch? Or did you spend too much time picking cards in four different colors and end up ruining your draft?

Next week, I’m going to consider the signals we’re sending to our neighbors and how that can impact our draft. See you then.