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Alternatively titled: "The Danger of Cool Things" Revisited, or Why Valakut Isn't Dead
Chad Ellis once wrote an article called "The Danger of Cool Things." While the cards may be outdated, the principles are not, and Valakut's recent decline is a great demonstration of why. So, what happened in Paris? Valakut entered the deck as the big, bad boogeyman and proceeded to lay a big, giant egg. Its performance since has been just as abysmal. Why did such a powerful deck simply disappear off the face of the Standard metagame?
Many people would immediately turn to Caw Blade, saying that the new Stoneforge Mystic deck pushed out Valakut. While this is true to some extent, I do not believe it to be the whole explanation. No doubt Caw Blade is no fun for Valakut, but I've played the matchup some, and while it's tough, Valakut still has quite a bit of game. No, I think there is a bigger culprit than Sword of Feast and Famine:
There were (and maybe still are) a number of people who think that card is good in Valakut. It's a trap. Green Sun's Zenith is actually just terrible for the deck. The most important thing to remember is that each card in the deck must justify itself relative to every other potential option in that slot. So, what was Green Sun's Zenith replacing? The answer is Summoning Trap, and it's a downgrade in pretty much every way.
Let's take a look at the comparison:
Speed:
Summoning Trap is a 6-mana instant.
Green Sun's Zenith is a sorcery and costs 7 (for Primeval Titan) and 8 (for Avenger of Zendikar or Gaea's Revenge).
Advantage: Summoning Trap.
Flexibility:
Summoning Trap gets a dude from the top 7.
Green Sun's Zenith gets any Green dude.
Advantage: Green Sun's Zenith.
Resiliency:
Summoning Trap is amazing against counterspells.
Green Sun's Zenith is pretty horrible against counterspells.
Green Sun's Zenith is marginally better against discard.
Advantage: Summoning Trap.
Added Value:
Summoning Trap protects your early plays.
Green Sun's Zenith is nothing other than bonus copies of your guys (if you have enough mana).
Advantage: Summoning Trap.
You know why so many players thought Green Sun's Zenith might be good when it is so obviously inferior? Because it is the more "flexible" card, and many players, especially pros, prize flexibility. Even so, flexibility is not always king. The card fulfilling the proper role in the deck and shoring up holes is what is key. Normally flexible cards are very good at doing this, but that's not always the case.
What happens when a card like Green Sun's Zenith shows up in a spoiler? Everyone looks at it and goes, "Oooooooohhh." People recognize it as a good card, and all of a sudden, it's in every deck where it might be good. It's "new toy" syndrome. Having the "new toy" in your deck is the "cool" thing to do, and so you put it in. Just one piece of advice—make sure your new toy is actually better than your old toy first.
See, playing a card based on "coolness" alone is a terrible way to make decisions. Chad Ellis knew this many years ago, but it seems like people forget this right around the release of every new set (Wurmcoil Engine, Molten-Tail Masticore, and Mox Opal were also "cool" things, and look how they turned out). Everyone is all excited about the new cards, and they shove aside the old ones. But, there's a problem with doing this—the old decks work.
Guess what? That's the only thing that matters. If your deck doesn't work, it doesn't matter how many new cards it's playing or how cool it is; it's still going to lose. So, before you toss aside old cards that you know do their job, make sure your new toy has at least a reasonable chance of doing what you want it to accomplish. If it doesn't, then you shouldn't even bother trying it. Just stick with the old guns.
In light of that fact, let's take a look at what both cards accomplish, in light of Valakut's primary game plan.
The slot that these two cards fill is a slot designed to be "big guys." Bonus copies of Primeval Titan, Avenger of Zendikar, Gaea's Revenge, or Inferno Titan are necessary for Valakut to be able to hit them consistently. Both cards allow you to "dig" to some extent to find whatever big man you need. So, what are the differences between the two? GSZ is specific, allowing you to get the guy you want. Summoning Trap is not.
So, let me ask you, as far as Valakut is concerned, does this matter? To some extent, but in most cases (at least in my experience), the actual man you hit matters much less than getting either Avenger or Titan or something into play. Playing from both sides of the matchup, it seems to me that many times putting a big guy into play fast, regardless of what the guy is, will win for Valakut. Thus, the fact that Summoning Trap is an instant and costs less mana than GSZ is very important here.
But wait! GSZ also allows you to play Lotus Cobra . . . which sucks in Valakut. Valakut has absolutely no reason to play Lotus Cobra. Lotus Cobra's main strength is enabling 5 mana on turn three, which Valakut has absolutely no use for. It has use for 4 mana on turn three and 6 on turn four, but it is already very good at getting to both of those thresholds, and Lotus Cobra really doesn't improve Valakut's ability to do any of that. Add this to the fact that Lotus Cobra can't block profitably and makes your opponent's early removal live against you, and Lotus Cobra ends up being a huge detriment to Valakut's fundamental strategy. If you want to run a 2-mana creature to get with GSZ, it should be Overgrown Battlement, and not Lotus Cobra. Battlement enables explosive starts in much the same way as Lotus Cobra, but is not a liability otherwise.
Having said that, let's return to looking at both GSZ and Summoning Trap. GSZ has the benefit of being able to fetch a 2-mana mana dork or Oracle, and while this isn't negligible, I feel that it's much less important than what Summoning Trap provides—protection. Summoning Trap ensures that all your 2-mana Elves and generally Oracle of Mul Daya resolve, because your opponent probably can't afford to risk you having a Trap.
If Valakut dumps a Primeval Titan, Avenger, or Gaea's Revenge into play on turn two or three, the game is probably over. Knowing this, the Blue opponent really can't counter any of Valakut's mana dudes early, because doing so opens them up to the ~45 percent chance Valakut is holding a Summoning Trap, which is game on the spot. Essentially, if the Blue player feels that he is even in the game, countering makes no sense because if Valakut has the Trap, the Blue player is just dead on the spot. This isn't even getting to the fact that Summoning Trap is an instant, and can thus be cast at the end of your opponent's turn to bait a counter so your actual Titan/Avenger resolves.
Now, if Blue were a less big part of the metagame, Summoning Trap's anticounter clause would be less important, but look at the metagame we have. It's dominated by Jace, the Mind Sculptor. You want to know who he's friends with? Mana Leak and Flashfreeze (and Squadron Hawk and Sword of Feast and Famine, but who cares about those cards?). Summoning Trap puts both of those cards in a very awkward situation.
In short, I feel that Valakut is hurt, but it is by no means dead. The deck is still quite strong, and going back to builds that feature three to four Summoning Traps is not a horrid way to combat Caw Blade. Caw Blade is a good deck, but it loses to a fast Avenger, Titan, or Gaea's Revenge just like most other decks, and Summoning Trap is the card that makes that happen; Green Sun's Zenith is not. That's not to say that Green Sun's Zenith doesn't have a place in Valakut, just that Summoning Trap is the more important card. Green Sun's Zenith has applications (primarily fetching Overgrown Battlement and being extra "Traps"), but at this point in time, if I were inclined to play Primeval Titan, I would not leave home without Summoning Trap.
Everyone suffers from the desire to do "cool" things, but this is an impulse that definitely needs to be controlled. Given that it happens in deck design even more than it does in actual play, controlling it when building your deck is particularly important. Functionality and effectiveness are the only things that matter. You don't get style points in Magic, and most people would do well to remember that more often.
Chingsung Chang
Conelead most everywhere and on MTGO
Khan32k5 at gmail dot com
