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During my hiatus from writing Trick told me I must write an article soon or I would lose my only fan. Since I am all about satisfying and supporting others, especially my sole devotee, I thought I'd write a little passage discussing a situation I've been discussing with a few others.
During my last PTQ qualifier for Pro Tour Kyoto I was discussing a scenario with my tablemate, here's the setup:
So far during this match every play has been even. You both have not missed a land drop and you are even with creatures. Neither of you have taken damage or relatively little damage. It's now turn 5 and you have lain your fifth land. Within your hand you hold a Battlegrace Angel and a Cavern Thoctar but NO 6th land. Your opponent has multiple unknown cards in hand. Also keep in mind neither one of you has gained parity or card advantage.
The question I ask is, "Do you play your Battlegrace Angel?"
Surprisingly, I asked twenty different players during that PTQ and 14 of them said "Yes, you should."
In theory: You play the Angel and have an attacker gain +1/+1 and Lifelink both of which are obviously something that can turn the game into your favor. However, in this scenario, what you may not know is that if your opponent does build decks like the "average" pro. Chances are that he/she will have an answer to your Angel. Looking at many of the limited decklists from Worlds, Pro Tours and GPs the standard is 13 to 17 creatures, 7-10 spells, with ~17 lands. An opening hand of 7 would likely have 2-3 lands 2-3 creatures and 1-2 non-creature spells.
So, the question you should be asking is "What are the chances of my opponent having an answer?" What are the chances that the ONE card in your opponent's hand is the Silver Bullet to your plan for VICTORY? Through 200 games of limited Magic, I have kept record of the first ten turns of the games for both me and my opponent.
Keep in mind that there is a sizable percentage of players missing a land drop between turns 1 and 6 AND that not everyone has a Battlegrace Angel.
So what I'm really trying to represent is the life expectancy of a creature (with toughness of 4 or higher) that is dropped on turn 4-6.
From my analysis: 74% of the time the FIRST major threat you play is dealt within 2 turns.
So, in the scenario where you played your Angel, your Angel, statistically, dies by Turn 7. You will net 2 life gains from attacks before it's dealt with. Which is hardly game winning, sure it can sometimes make the difference but it isn't by any means a nail in the coffin. Now based on this information, IF your Battlegrace Angel is your BEST creature, you might want to think twice about sending her off into battle so early.
Next, consider this, AFTER your opponent has delivered death to your first creature of 4+ toughness and you decide to lay your second beast:
From my analysis: 35% of the time the SECOND major threat will be dealt within 2 turns.
Now what this means is that (barring Wrath effects) there are very few "Single Card" removal spells in this format.
Soul's Fire (situationally)
That doesn't mean that your opponent can't double block or utilize a combat trick to kill your threat. It just means that when you lay your first major threat you MUST consider the likelihood of removal. Now in games 2 and 3 you should have much more information to drive your decisions. Unless you have several major threats in hand and you don't mind losing them, one after another, you MUST think about your opponents options as well as your own. If you see 4 mana open and 1 of them is a white source, you may want to rethink attacking into Resounding Silence.
One way to assist in your decisions is by knowing the answer. I've seen many people play with Onyx Goblet yet very few play with Thoughtcutter Agent. Now I'm not saying you should start picking the Agent within your first 5 picks in a draft, but that many people undervalue him. I'm saying that a single activation of the Agent can tell you a great deal. And the added bonus to gaining this information is that your opponent loses life!
Ok, now back to our original scenario. With no 6th land in sight and a Cavern Thoctar or Angel awaiting battle, what do you do? Let's look at the likelihood of drawing the necessary mana.
At turn 6 you will have drawn 5 or 6 cards in addition to your opening 7. If you're on the play you've got 12 cards and if you're on the draw you've got 13. If you're running the standard 17 out of 40 land count you will have drawn 29% of your lands. This means that 44% of your remaining deck is land so you have less than a 50% chance of drawing your 6th land on your next draw. But the statistics say you will draw a land within the next 3 turns. Could you wait?
Ideally, you play the Thoctar on turn five, then play the Angel on six and send your Cavern Thoctar to battle with a guardian Battlegrace Angel at his back, and you face ME in the finals only to lose because I killed your Turn 5 Angel.
--Lee
