Much has been said about the raw mathematics behind Magic the Gathering.  Probability and simple arithmetic comprise the game's backbone and are the factor that separates the merely good players from the truly great.  Many players are mastering a layer of strategy beyond common Math's jurisdiction.  There is an intuitive, almost ethereal element of instinct intrinsic to the game as well.  An outside observer might even say it's a bit like "Magic".  In this article I'll explore the nature of this sixth sense as it pertains to Magic the Gathering.

You're on the final turn of a very close match.  Both you and your opponent are at dangerously low life totals.  You have three Llanowar Elves in play and an Overrun in your hand.  You do the math and realize that, assuming your buddy doesn't have something that can stop this damage, you've got just enough on the table for a kill.  Your deductive reasoning comes into play.  You haven't seen any white cards played and he can't produce white mana so you can probably rule out a Holy Day, Harms Way or Safe Passage.  But your opponent has one green mana left untapped.  Could it be a Fog in his hand?  You have to attack with everything or you won't kill him, which would allow him a chance kill you next turn with his 2/2 flying creature.  What do you do?

[caption id="attachment_4276" align="alignright" width="200" caption="If your opponent has this look on his face... you can take that into consideration."][/caption]

In this particular situation, you need to calculate how much damage required to kill your opponent.  You also need to anticipate the final card in his hand.  There are many logical ways to arrive at an educated guess about what that card is.  Has he played Fog yet in this game?  Does Fog even make sense in the type of deck he's playing?  Does your buddy have an evil grin on his face?  In the end, while probability might play a role in your decision, the fact of the matter is there is no way of knowing whether or not that last card in his hand is a Fog.  You may be able to give yourself a set of "odds" but no amount of math will save you in this situation.  This is where intuition comes into play.

Take the game of poker as an example.  To the non-player, poker is very much a game of chance, even more so than MTG.  But why then is it that the same handful of players win these huge tournaments each and every year?  The answer is a combination of experience, probability and intuition.  If you've ever seen a championship match on TV you'll have seen the "win chance percentages" next to each player's hand on the screen.  Often times the percentages are 50/50 and you'll see a guy go "all in" and take the entire pot.  That's raw, unabashed intuition in practice.  Its as important as anything in a game involving chance and unknowable variables.

Back to the original question - how do we nurture and develop this gift as a player?  First- and I may break some hearts with this revelation but the fact of the matter is, there is little magic behind intuition. It all comes back to observation, deduction and math.  And when these three things are utilized in an unconscious, brash manner, we call it intuition.  Its magical in the sense that we do not know exactly how it works but since it is so closely entangled with our personal amount of experience and intelligence, it is probably more a feat of the amazing human mind than it is "magic".

[caption id="attachment_4271" align="alignleft" width="210" caption="The human mind can do unexplainable things."][/caption]

That having been said, the way to master one's own instinct is to play often, pay attention to everything going on in the game and in the end to trust that feeling even if you can't fully explain why you're making that decision.  I am reminded of the human gift known as savant syndrome.  If you've seen the movie "Rain Man" you'll know what I'm talking about.  Persons with this syndrome can tell you how many dots are on a page without thinking and what day of the week George Washington's birthday was in a heartbeat.  Scientists don't fully understand the syndrome yet and those with the gift cannot explain what is going on inside their heads when they perform such feats.  My point here is that the human mind is not restrained by which mathematical formulas it has memorized or how many numbers it can hold at once.  Magic, like poker, is a game where it is utterly impossible to account for every variable in a given game.  But if you as a player pay attention to what is going on some things that are completely incalculable will begin to "click" for you unconsciously.  Maybe not "Rain Man" style but surely often enough for it to positively effect your game.

With this knowledge I would argue that, while math is the basis upon which this concept is built upon, letting go and trusting your instincts can often be more effective than simply "doing the math".  Allow me to explain.  When a player adds up the damage in his hand to see if he can defeat his opponent in five turns, he's doing simple arithmetic, adding up to the number twenty.  This is a great strategy and helps you to plan our your next four or five turns.  Most good players do this.  But a player who vaguely intuits the amount of damage in his hand is presented with a more applicable "range" of damage.  For example he might come to the conclusion that he can do about 16-22 damage with this hand depending on his next few draws and what his opponent does.  While this strategy might be less precise he is not going to get stuck in his own "plan" and be foiled by a simple Harms Way or creature with 'protection from red'.  The folly of a precise number is that you can not only get it wrong mathematically (cmon, admit it, its happened to you too!).  But you can also find yourself too adherent to a plan that might not be the best course of action as the game unfolds.

Too often a player gets caught up in their own mathematical scheme.  It becomes too rigid and doesn't allow enough opportunity to react and "counter" what your opponent might be doing.  Your plan could have been to use your entire hand to do 20 damage to your opponent.  But you could have foiled your opponent's entire strategy with a intuitive Lightning Bolt at their Elvish Archdruid on turn two.  Again, and I cant emphasis this enough, math is extremely important but there are many times when no amount of deduction or addition is going to point you in the right direction.

This skill comes into play outside the game as well like when deciding which deck to bring to an event or which color cards to grab in sealed.   Building and using your sideboard is a great place to use instinct.  Is this guy playing elves?  Should I throw in a Deathmark or two?  Should I even have Deathmark in my sideboard?  These questions are without the realm of math's jurisdiction and are completely up to you to intuit.

[caption id="attachment_4269" align="alignleft" width="240" caption="Sometimes when things seem impossible its better to just turn off the targeting computer and go with your intuition. (or the force.. whichever)"][/caption]

Again, I'm not asking anyone to throw reason and common sense out the window.  On the contrary, I think people should pay more attention to what is going on in their games.   How many cards are left in an opponent's library?  What's creatures are in the graveyard?  How many cards are in their hand? etc.  But when you find yourself in those 50/50 conundrums you should learn to trust your instincts and intuition as much as possible.  Should I rush or try and get board control?  What are the chances that I'll topdeck that Cruel Ultimatum?  It may not work every time but the more experience you garner the more acute it will be.  Pay close attention to every detail, use math when applicable and let your subconscious fill in the rest.  Just ask a professional player about running on instinct and I'm sure they'll have a story or two to tell.  While it may not be real magic you're wielding, the power of the human mind cannot be underestimated.